baltosquid

Sure, it's supposed to melt, but you know what I say? Buffalo didn't have the guts to leave their giant 2014 snowpile undisturbed. We can build the mythical summer-surviving snowpile here, if we ever get enough snow...

Absolutely! It’s another “thing to watch” and I think we can say AI models are going to be consequential but of course never perfect and will have their own shortcomings. Super eager to see more of these models though. I wonder when we’ll get a mesoscale one - I figure that will take a bit longer since hallucination probably will be worse.

Something to chew on w/ regards to AI. Really had a good idea of the debacle from a long way out. We’re a bit beyond this range looking towards the 28th, so the current AI depiction has some more noise to work through than shown here around hr192, but we’re probably not far from the AI latching on to a credible idea of progression. Maybe even by Friday.

GEFS getting more of a coastal look with the 28th but too north and warm at this point I’d say. EPS has a similar location but less precip. GEPS still seems to have a lot of variance.

Kinda looks like it’s not a Miller B anymore judging by the AI and EPS. Maybe a hybrid. But moot until we see something to suggest better temps

@CAPE maybe the NAM wasn’t alone for this one but maybe about 2-3 years back wasn’t there an assumed way out to sea storm that the NAM had coming back to jack the eastern shore pretty much right from it getting into range? Though to reel one in from 60+ is way different than 24 of course.

If the sampling was better it would look like the NAM

RGEM is a bit more north but a far cry from the NAM.

If you look at the h5 vort you can see what it’s been trying to do over the past few runs. Check at hr24 (valid 12z Wed) and roll back 4/5 runs. Check how the energy is compacting and wanting to spin up more as it comes through the TN valley. Then compare the trend at the same time rolling back on the Euro. The NAM is like a supercharged version of that trend, probably overdoing it.

Miller B signal got stronger at 00z on the EPS and GEPS, but 06z GEFS is a bit weaker (still apparent). Temps still not great.

Far out but the only thing on ensembles with any specificity is what looks like a Miller B late next week, judging by ensembles. But we're gonna have our work cut out for us temperature wise in that time frame. Didn't include the CMC because it's keeping the low way up along the lakes so not much to show. Pretty lackluster. But winter's almost over.

Yeah in terms of extended snow on the ground, we were really able to milk January for all it was worth. Got a lot water to freeze too. Haven't really seen that very much since I moved here in 2018. If I never paid attention to the weather I'd have probably thought these past two winters were good to great given how generally crappy everything has been since March 2018. But put in perspective, it's sad how difficult every setup has been over the past half decade plus. I am cautiously optimistic at things finally seeming a little easier with an improving PDO now, though.

Yeah the NAM does not encourage me so far

If this doesn't work out....

More h5 interaction but pretty late in the game. Need it to happen faster, then we'd be talking