Torch Tiger

1938, 100 sustained g 125 for Providence. Not sure the sustained in Donna but peak gust was 81

let's get those rivers very high and dangerous to wash a few antique covered bridges away?

Rivers and Streams With the heavy rain and snowmelt, river and stream flooding look to be a significant possibility. The MMEFS indicating several locations for 30% exceedance of minor flooding with a few locations having a 30% chance for moderate flooding. As stated above, the big X factor will be how much snowfall remains after Sundays event and will likely be a big impact in the river flood threat. Strong to Damaging Winds A powerful LLJ will likely bring strong winds and possibly damaging winds to the region late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Deterministic guidance is in good agreement with a 80-100 kt 850mb LLJ which is approaching 4-5 standard deviations above climatology for this time of year. Even at 925mb, winds could be as high as 70- 90 knots. GFS bufkit soundings at this time don`t show much of any inversion which means these high winds will likely mix down to the surface. NBM probabilites for 58mph gusts (High Wind Warning) are high at 70-90% for Cape Cod and the Islands. Even inland for areas east of the I-95 corridor, probs for 58+ mph gusts are moderate at 40-70%. NBM probabilities for 46mph gusts (Wind Advisory) already showing moderate probs at 40-70% for the interior. As for the marine areas, storm force winds are very likely with hurricane force winds certainly in the realm of possibility with this system. Coastal Flooding Given this system is still more then 3 days out, uncertainty remains high for level of coastal flooding expected. As of right now, minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible along the south coast where 2-4 feet of surge is possible if the timing of the maximum winds aligns with the Wednesday AM high tide. Astro tides are also coming up for the the south and east coast during this time period and may lead to minor coastal flooding impacts even for the eastern facing coasts despite the the unfavorable southerly winds due to rapid pressure drops.

Major severe event still on tap for the deep south! that'll be interesting to track as well

Great!!

worse for some, at least.

Oh yeah, it's way out there, just interesting to look at.

I don't understand it, but to each their own. Most are looking for powerful winds and flooding

If that biblical 2nd cutter works out, wow! ELE?

wow, speechless

he's on a hill too, 400'...but technically the hills to his east on other side of the valley are higher even over 500'

Yeah, a "no school Foster-Gloucester" situation? otherwise awful for the S lowlanders.

Following quickly on the heels of Sundays mood/moderate snow event/rain coast, this is where to discuss the wild impacts of the inside-runner bomb. Let's gooo!!

no thread?? wow

Thankfully we have the cutter coming up, not much else to track. Tomorrows light/moderate snow event is old hat x10, we need some novelty

HRRR looks terrific! Much of NE gets something

Euro GW for the 13th...

steincast

Yeah great trends since yesterday, wow

True, also many of our snowstorms are Miller b or late-developers which models will struggle with putting pieces together, while generally cutters are fully formed and mature way south and west of us so it's less moving parts coming together

even if it sacrifices the south coast/i-95, I hope the actual track and snow dist. is way NW of that!

Oh yeah I wasn't talk about warmth, just that's a terrible storm track. I'm sure there were a few dog 1980's winters that looked like what the gfs is crapping out in the LR

next storm the 14th or so. That's a deep cut, MN/WI