Torch Tiger

The boss hyping away as usual

Euro much much faster with the track than yesterday's weenie run

Dead season

Hopefully the core is off the coast hundreds of miles SW of them

ICON and GGEM (eh, i know) into Nova Scotia

There remains a significant amount of spread in both the deterministic and ensemble guidance on when this turn occurs, and then how quickly Lee accelerates northward. For now the NHC track forecast remains closest to the consensus aids, which have slowed a bit from the prior cycle, and the latest track forecast is a bit slower but near the same trajectory as the prior advisory.

please not the NAM

I didn't read the 5pm NHC disc until now, but they mention the turn north, and the gfs being much much faster than the Euro (or GGEM for that matter) Satellite and aircraft fixes show that Lee is moving west- northwestward at about 9 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast philosophy. A mid-level ridge to the north of Lee is foreast to shift west-southwestward during the next few days, causing Lee's forward speed to slow considerably through early next week. By midweek, a mid-latitude trough moving across the Great Lakes region and into the eastern United States is expected to weaken the ridge and allow Lee to turn north-northwestward and northward on days 4 and 5. There is still a significant amount of spread in the deterministic guidance and global model ensembles as to exactly when and where the northward turn takes place. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF models are about 275 n mi apart at day 5, primarily due to along-track spread related to how fast Lee begins moving northward. The NHC track forecast continues to lie near the latest consensus aids, and the new track is very similar to the previous forecast.

15-year-old on a dirtbike (3 of them total) with no headlight was just hit by a car. I didn't see it but heard it, pretty disturbing, was around 20-30 people outside. He was alive when he went in ambulance but he was out for a good minute or two.

Otherwise by D4 or so, the main players are fairly similar on both.

the 18z gfs is much faster with Lee's motion than the Euro, by hundreds of miles. Allows it to tangle with the first trough much more

banger!

Looks similar to those experimental Euro runs shown a few days ago.

Yeah forward speed too...Euro is a mess

Could see that happening, the first low in QC shoots out quicker and the trailing s/w trended more diggy and potent.

Yeah, it's interesting to track and see outcomes. colossal model failures at this range are not unheard of, ofc. Time's running out though

No worry weenies, hope is on the horizon. We may still get wiped

we've all let it go days ago, besides the diehard weenies.

There's a large power station/substation there, lots of outages if lightning gets it. Near 3/495

How about the 18z gfs latter panels?

not even todays storms can take away the bittersweet feeling of losing a cane

Oh Caneada Amazing run for them

oh you'll rain, maybe even zap!

Caneada? Canagone?