wow
Mobile
As the upper jet rounds the base of the trough and noses into the
northern Gulf Coast, our forecast area becomes co-located beneath
the favorable left exit region of the jet with enhanced large
scale ascent. In addition, the upper trough takes on a negative
tilt as the jet streak rounds the base of the trough. Mid level
winds at 500mb increase to in excess of 100 kts over the Lower
Mississippi Valley, with 850mb winds increasing to 70+ kts over
our forecast area. At the surface, low pressure will be positioned
in the vicinity of the Arklatex with a warm front extending
southeast across southern Mississippi into coastal Alabama Friday
evening. This low will rapidly deepen to sub-990mb as it lifts
northeast into the Mid South by early Tuesday morning and attempts
to occlude. As this occurs the warm front should lift northward
across our region with an anticipation of a quality warm sector
airmass surging northward along and south of the front. This warm
front may become the focus for supercell thunderstorms with a
tornado and damaging wind threat. Considering the strong kinematic
wind fields that should be in place, some higher end severe
weather threat could develop.
Tal
Issued at 501 AM EST Thu Jan 4 2024
The strongest shortwave in the ongoing series of storms will eject
east across the Southern Plains on Monday. Models continue to be
in excellent agreement at strengthening a very deep surface low
(985 mb or less) that will track from the Mid-South region to the
Lower Great Lakes. Extremely strong southerly 850 mb winds of
60-80 knots will precede the trailing cold front, peaking over the
region on Monday night. A solid gale with possible storm-force
gusts is expected over the Gulf waters. A warm and moist maritime
tropical air mass will surge northward with a strengthening warm
front on Monday night. A fairly large warm sector will overspread
the region. At least weak instability will develop across most of
the forecast area, with pockets of moderate instability possible.
Again the backdrop of high-end shear values, this has the
potential to be a significant severe weather event. Discrete
rotating supercells are possible in the open warm sector, with
line segments coming just in advance of the trailing cold front on
Tuesday. SPC already has the Panhandle outlooked for severe
weather in its Day 4 outlook with severe chances that correlate to
a Slight Risk. As timing and placement certainty grows in the
days ahead, there is room for a targeted upgrade to the the severe
risk.
i don't drive for Amazon Yeah never seen any of their trucks or vans with AWD, they seem to drive ram promaster vans almost exclusively. anyway, glad the Euro was better down in CT
