Torch Tiger

Yeah, a "no school Foster-Gloucester" situation? otherwise awful for the S lowlanders.

Following quickly on the heels of Sundays mood/moderate snow event/rain coast, this is where to discuss the wild impacts of the inside-runner bomb. Let's gooo!!

no thread?? wow

Thankfully we have the cutter coming up, not much else to track. Tomorrows light/moderate snow event is old hat x10, we need some novelty

HRRR looks terrific! Much of NE gets something

Euro GW for the 13th...

steincast

Yeah great trends since yesterday, wow

True, also many of our snowstorms are Miller b or late-developers which models will struggle with putting pieces together, while generally cutters are fully formed and mature way south and west of us so it's less moving parts coming together

even if it sacrifices the south coast/i-95, I hope the actual track and snow dist. is way NW of that!

Oh yeah I wasn't talk about warmth, just that's a terrible storm track. I'm sure there were a few dog 1980's winters that looked like what the gfs is crapping out in the LR

next storm the 14th or so. That's a deep cut, MN/WI

Look at NNE, that's no good....also some of that qpf added there is not associated with the storm so it's worse than it looks

gfs was rubbish for much of the region.

I hope so, but not buying into anything too wild yet. Obviously Nantucket or far far SE areas have a much better chance at wild damage since they will be close to sectoring

Buzz-kill CAD and snow cover inversion will protect us from the wild LLJ

Yeah I'm not calling for that, lol

sleeting here as well, no snow atm. Had some nice wind gusts ahead of that, 30kt?

Yeah, it is a matter of some folks hoping for a front-ender to cold rain/slot, so their pack isn't gone. While others prefer a wild, windy 55F pack obliterator that takes some down.

oh I agree, wouldn't forecast it ...yet <3

why's everyone so down on the cutter? it's going to be very very exciting. hopefully it cuts far enough west we sector and get some crazy winds again.

agree with a 6-12" type deal for a decent amount of NE. I wouldn't rule out someone going over 18" though, especially with any possible wild convective banding that sets ups up in a particular zone. while 10 miles away is exhaust city. lol we've seen it with more than a couple recent storms, not impossible.

wow Mobile As the upper jet rounds the base of the trough and noses into the northern Gulf Coast, our forecast area becomes co-located beneath the favorable left exit region of the jet with enhanced large scale ascent. In addition, the upper trough takes on a negative tilt as the jet streak rounds the base of the trough. Mid level winds at 500mb increase to in excess of 100 kts over the Lower Mississippi Valley, with 850mb winds increasing to 70+ kts over our forecast area. At the surface, low pressure will be positioned in the vicinity of the Arklatex with a warm front extending southeast across southern Mississippi into coastal Alabama Friday evening. This low will rapidly deepen to sub-990mb as it lifts northeast into the Mid South by early Tuesday morning and attempts to occlude. As this occurs the warm front should lift northward across our region with an anticipation of a quality warm sector airmass surging northward along and south of the front. This warm front may become the focus for supercell thunderstorms with a tornado and damaging wind threat. Considering the strong kinematic wind fields that should be in place, some higher end severe weather threat could develop. Tal Issued at 501 AM EST Thu Jan 4 2024 The strongest shortwave in the ongoing series of storms will eject east across the Southern Plains on Monday. Models continue to be in excellent agreement at strengthening a very deep surface low (985 mb or less) that will track from the Mid-South region to the Lower Great Lakes. Extremely strong southerly 850 mb winds of 60-80 knots will precede the trailing cold front, peaking over the region on Monday night. A solid gale with possible storm-force gusts is expected over the Gulf waters. A warm and moist maritime tropical air mass will surge northward with a strengthening warm front on Monday night. A fairly large warm sector will overspread the region. At least weak instability will develop across most of the forecast area, with pockets of moderate instability possible. Again the backdrop of high-end shear values, this has the potential to be a significant severe weather event. Discrete rotating supercells are possible in the open warm sector, with line segments coming just in advance of the trailing cold front on Tuesday. SPC already has the Panhandle outlooked for severe weather in its Day 4 outlook with severe chances that correlate to a Slight Risk. As timing and placement certainty grows in the days ahead, there is room for a targeted upgrade to the the severe risk.