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Torch Tiger

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Everything posted by Torch Tiger

  1. Avg storm here. Very little thunder, assuming that little complex was mature rolling through (mostly sw). Maybe .30" rain est
  2. I could see N /E CT getting in on some storms a while later. definitely some southerly development/ saggers going on with that line as it pushes east
  3. can see the broken line split happening MA/VT/NH border to route 2 already. lol
  4. radar looks like ass tbh, but it has improved a bit the past 30 min.
  5. Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms, primarily capable of damaging wind gusts, are anticipated this afternoon and into the evening across portions of New England into eastern Pennsylvania, southern New York, and New Jersey. Though there is some uncertainty in the degree of convective organization and evolution, a severe thunderstorm watch could be warranted later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Satellite and radar trends show convection developing across PA into NY in an environment characterized by moderate buoyancy (~1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) and strong deep-layer shear (40-45 kt 0-6km). Though deep convection has yet to form, it is anticipated that as daytime heating and mixing continues, the environment will support strong, organized thunderstorm updrafts. Given long, straight hodographs and appreciable 0-1 km lapse rates approaching 8 C/km, along with seasonably high precipitable water content approaching 2.00 inches, the primary threat will be for damaging straight-line winds of 55-70 MPH within thunderstorm downdrafts. Hail or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out with any stronger, isolated organized convection that occurs, though low-level shear and mid-level lapse rates do not suggest that they are likely at this time.
  6. we have all fall/winter for 40's and 50's with crisp air, not sure why anyone would root for that crap in mid-summer
  7. the days will be mild with the decent sun angle, but the evenings/nights are certainly ugly
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