AM disc
So what about the rest of the day? Other than over the Cape and
Islands as mentioned above, cloud cover continues to scatter
out to more of a partial to mostly cloudy look, with peeks of
sun to varying degrees. Modest W/WNW breezes to around 25 mph
are possible in this post-frontal partial clearing period. I`d
imagine sky and wind gust conditions probably take on a similar
look for most of the day; until we see a bit more of an increase
in cloud cover later this aftn and tonight as approaching upper
low from the Gt Lakes moves in. That may bring some isolated to
scattered showers into CT and southern RI late this aftn but no
washouts.
4pm update
So for tonight, the robust closed low over northern PA is expcted to
move into the southern coastal waters through the late-evening
hours. As this feature moves eastward, expect an increase/fill-back-
in of cloud cover towards a mostly cloudy look. In addition there
looks to be a pretty concentrated area of convective showers that
mainly projects to affect the southern waters by sundown thru late
evening, but could extend as far north as the Hartford-Providence-
southeastern MA area. Because of the cold air aloft, steep low-level
lapse rates could bring some convective enhancement with a narrow
ribbon of 50-100 J/kg of MUCAPE in the NAM guidance; that may
including the potential for graupel or perhaps a flash or two of
lightning. Day Cloud Phase RGB imagery over PA was indicating some
mixed phase glaciation to the current field of convective clouds,
which could lend credence to this potential. Higher-res convective-
permitting solutions really do blossom this region of heavier
showers during the 22-04z timeframe, though most of it is over the
southern coastal waters. Otherwise, dry weather is expected
elsewhere through midnight.
