Torch Tiger
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Everything posted by Torch Tiger
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Yeah that's worst case in many ways, especially if it's a strong TS or weak hurricane lost at sea near the coast. Of course, this may be a nothingburger and we're all just b.s.'ing; let's not assume this will be a hurricane at any point, nevermind near NC/SC I'm suspicious of like 80% of the modeling beyond D4 at this point, but I'd expect a TS or weak 'cane approaching the Carolinas by then.
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Euro AI does what I was going to mention as a possibilty earlier; stalls twice and even completes a small loop at some point? I think there is some validity to that, at least the entry point; either a very slow approach or full-on stall. Some of these modeled interactions are wild, and I'd toss.
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0-6km shear 40-50kt WNE/NYS. At least on SPC tab. Not too shabby.
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I'm just happy for the rain. That Stein/coc stretch was beautiful but vicious
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12z gefs mostly into SC or NC, though haven't seen past hr 108
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ICON (trash, I Know) is most wild, gives Bermuda two hits within 48 hours.
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Not sure about rain totals near TAN, but was in Dighton/North Taunton earlier and it was torrential rains. I'd guess at least 1" in 20 minutes
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Pouring in norton
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Will be 40s 50s most spots lol
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Above normal temps are expected through the period with temps well into the 70s into early next week. Ensembles are indicating low probs for 80F so some 80 degree readings are possible for a few days. Lfg
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As we talked about yesterday
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ots......congrats
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Yeah, maybe for some. Hopefully it delivers at least some poor drainage flooding rains, if not flash flooding. There's nothing really else to track besides foliage. No canes, no severe. Besides that triple-point idea which is probably a stretch
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Maybe a few spinups late Thu/night? warm front rips through, PWATs high and soundings actually have some directional and speed shear to differing degrees. LI sound tor?
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Yeah, a few showers Thursday/Friday? Sick
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what?
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Radar is rough end to summer
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Will we get the usual three months of fall? OND? Perhaps into January for the Cape?
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I would think for a SE coast hit, you'd want this to develop well SW so when it turns N and NNE, it's headed towards land at least. For NC - NE impacts, I would think we'd want to see pretty oranges to our N and E. instead (at least on that 12z gfs) it's a ripping trough and westerlies. Also, that's a miserably weak U/L near the Panhandle, and probably would want that wayyyy north and stronger. lol not a good capture setup with the westerlies so closeby
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Yeah looks like a mid pattern, if there is a storm. But not nearly as hostile as Erin, so there's that
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indicas, I would rip those babies ~60 days and before first frost.
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not fun but very very exciting
