Torch Tiger

Can always adjust up

18z gfs would be amazing! Let's do that!!

Onto Napril

I hope you get 6" melted QPF no matter type

18z gfs seems like a reasonable middle-ground

you mean P/C forecast?

Was in RI today, Scituate/Smithfield was a RIVER coming down from those hills. Sides of roads washed out. Hopefully we can maximize the QPF on this next event to renew the excitement!

The focus period for the long term forecast will be Wednesday night through Thursday night (at least). This 24-36 hour period has the potential to deliver another round of 2-3 inches of rain to the region which (I`m sure we don`t need to remind you) only recently received this much rain and continues to see some rivers in flood stage. The most important thing to determining where/if we deal with exacerbated flooding will be the ultimate track of the storm and the axis of heaviest rainfall. It is too soon to have a high degree of confidence on where this axis sets up, but the most recent ECMWF global guidance has come west, in line with the GFS/Canadian guidance showing those large rainfall amounts over interior southern New England rather than further east/offshore. Of course, we don`t want to focus on deterministic model runs, but that agreement isn`t what you would want to see if you`re hoping for a miss offshore. At this time frame we focus on ensembles, two of which (the GEFS and EPS) are indicating a 20-40% and 10-30% chance of AOA 2 inches of rain respectively. Not huge numbers, but 3 days out certainly indicative of potential for concern given how saturated the ground is already. The atmospheric moisture and dynamics are there, with a 1.25" PWAT plume directly from the Gulf of Mexico and large scale ascent from favorable placement beneath a 150 kt upper jet, but just how/if the northern and southern streams interact is unknown at this time. Additionally, probabilistic hydrographs from the NAEFS and GEFS indicate renewed flooding for RI rivers. This system will also bring a period of gusty winds as it passes late week.

I hope N ORH gets smoked with 24-30" of cement

Yeah out your way, fine. hopefully a pouring rain here.

Looks good! Hopefully another massive QPF bomb

45 in pvd

Wheel of fortune look...Pat Weyjak'd

crazy shrouded moon this AM.

wish we were there

Yeah, Wednesday should be low-key decent.

Yeah pattern looks generally miserable for next 2 weeks, need a Napril thread too.

can be tossed, but this is what it shows

Euro way OTS with the Friday deal. Too bad, hopefully it amps up in future runs!

big 'un

Let's gooooo! This could be epic

Ukie with another 1.5-4" QPF

Yeah looks blocky, we'll see some decent days though.

Fun storm, glad we all enjoyed it.

yeah rest of March sucks, just like 2012. Looks better for Napril