Torch Tiger

Yeah west is best. Not expecting anything here

A cold front approaches New England Thursday afternoon/evening, this could trigger a severe weather risk. While we are looking five days out there is already an area highlighted to our southwest by SPC for the potential of severe storms. Quick look, there is instability to tap into, guidance has MUCAPE values above 2,000 J/kg, steep lapse rates including mid-level lapse rates of 7C/km, modest effective shear of ~35 knots. The machine-learning at CSU highlights much of the region with a 15% to 30% chance of severe weather, which is impressive this far out and will be something that needs to be watched.

When I lived at 1k in New Boston NH, 2012-18, the highest temp I ever saw on my Davis VP2 was 97.0 in 2012, on the hottest day of the year. First-order SNE sites were like 99-104 iirc

If we are talking KBOS or BDL it's really not difficult at all. 100F is a bit more challenging, and of course >100F is more rare. 98-99 is fairly routine for those spots. I suppose it's how you want to define "rare", too. lol

Acatt loves the gfs

co-operation and unity, we all help each other ? does that happen any more? lol

1938 reduix would be fvcking crazy <3 awful

Yeah, who knows which was "worse" but the 1635 route probably had overall warmer waters (Late August rocket fuel) and took on slightly warmer waters than the 1938, due to a 1944 ish curve closer to shelf waters.

*WAS terrible. 1635 was the GOAT though, something like that could be improbable damage. Ideally it is like Hurricane Carol but 15-30mph stronger LF's and much larger, like a mini Typhoon Tip <3

1938 was terrible but I mean, aren't there worse possibilities?

I know the privy folk won't like this, but I would not wish away a FM strong cat 3- borderline 4 (130-140? mph weakening to 120) rocketing forward N or even NNW <3 into SNE.

The SST's were always 78F if not 83F peak, saw and measured those every year I used to measure from the late 80's through 2005. The "good" years you can bake some inlets to 80's easily - EWB, West Fal., and so on. It's basically a 1000 or 10,000 /year miracle to rip a cat 3-near 4? up into NE? lol

Yeah I mean it'll be much cooler then, but I'm afraid the "cry for mama" heat will be finito early this summer

Oh man smith and grafton hall still exist, thought they would raze those projects by now?

he means Septdewber, months from now it'll relax

All we have is heat/dews. No severe storms, no tropical, no nothing for months. Much like this past winter, the damage will be psychological

all good. It's impressive you have that memory though, lol. I was living in S NH at the time and I believe my Davis maxed at ~97 that summer.

Right. The tracking and overall histories of MCC's or derechos are more interesting to me.

I think we'd all prefer a region-wide derecho vs. another 2011 or 1953

90's were a hotbed of 'rechos

Lol...the on-air bot said no The GFS and EURO indicate that upwards of 1000-2000 J/kg of instability is available on Thursday afternoon, which could lead to severe thunderstorms,

How many apple martinis?

1200 dcape and 100/65 .. good wind threat. You were drunk