Torch Tiger

Yeah, it's a joke in comparison. I'm looking for a legit thunderstorm to track.

Thank you.

Sunday is going to be a very nice day, shades of 2008? was it

That's your best wx related post in a while

I may eat a huge plate of crow, but we'll see. BOX seems more than "meh" .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Shortwave moves through the upper flow and drives a cold front through Southern New England. Conditions will remain unstable through the day. Model CAPEs build to 2000-3000 J/Kg which is impressive for Southern New England. Highest values are expected over CT-RI-SE Mass in the afternoon. Favorable instability is also reflected in other indices... Totals around 50, Mid level lapse rates around 6.5, and Lifted Indices well below zero. HREF probability of 0-3 Km Helicity over 100 is 80 percent...over 200 is 30 percent. Winds at 850 mb reach 30 kt, while at 500 mb they reach 40-45 kt. Most of this and other values suggest a potential for strong storms. The values, and the timing of the cold front, favor Northern MA in the morning and CT-RI-SE Mass in the afternoon. Strong wind gusts are the prime concern, but a storm that develops sufficient helicity could generate large hail. We are adding stronger wording to the thunderstorm forecast based on these potentials.

Yeah, though that may depend which particular backyard you are in.

My expectations are in check, its NE "severe"after all.

It's hot

I think tomorrow is going to be pretty good.

Northeast... An upper-level trough will dig southeastward across Ontario on Saturday as a cold front advances southeastward across the northeastern U.S. A moist airmass is forecast ahead of the front with surface dewpoints across southeast New York and southern New England in the mid to upper 60s F. In response, a pocket of moderate instability is forecast to develop by Saturday afternoon. Thunderstorms should develop along the front and move east-southeastward across the region during the early to mid afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear, veered low-level flow and steep low-level lapse rates will be favorable for damaging wind gusts with the stronger storms. The severe threat should move toward the New England coastal areas by late afternoon. Merp

Saturday looks like we see a broken line with maybe a couple sups. I so/scattered. If the faster solutions are more correct this may be nothing for a majority.(nothing meaning higher-end regionally or otw).but regardless I would still say there is potential in SNE

Decent.

I think this looks pretty good, at least at this point in time. Could be mucked up by CIN? Debris?Timing? Sure..

We know how that goes. Hope they remain with the marginal outlook...

Let's discuss the impending danger and destruction.

Crunch n munch for lunch, satisfying meal for our fuzzy friends

Fugly

Up to 60% on our BOC zygote. HH's zipping in tomorrow to investigate!

Hankerings

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A broad area of low pressure accompanied by cloudiness and showers centered over the Yucatan Peninsula is forecast to move westward over the southern Bay of Campeche during the weekend. Some gradual development of this system is possible through early next week as long as it remains over water. Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of southern Mexico during the next few days. Regular issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will begin at 2 AM EDT tonight with the beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Forecaster Avila/Zelinsky

It aligns with the gypsy moth map clusters. That's impressive accuracy

We gypsy

Saw a few gypsy pillars last week, and with so many oaks in the yard nearly bare, it must be years of gypsy damage. Also looked at the gypsy damage maps available and there were a few reports locally.

First named storm down. GEFS hints at some activity in la-la land, perhaps the W Carib...we'll see.

Cumberland/Woonsocket