Torch Tiger

9 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Question: can the term "torch" refer to criteria other than temperature? I'm not sure if I've ever seen it applied to dew point. 

A 66/64 at 1am in November is not a torch? Lol

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Impressive dews at PWATs for the date to be sure, but temperature wise it's not that anomalous. We hit seventy on Christmas day a few years back, and almost 80 in spots in February two years ago. Those were impressive torches.

I am not arguing, we all see things differently I guess.

9 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

I'm 145 feet and further southwest and have 5 readings at or below 32.  I would think you would have had at least 1 or 2 by now.   

Lowell co-OP (3 mi) and Bedford asos (8 mi.) lowest were 32...Bedford 4 times Lowell once. Both are decent radiators, I am not.

38 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Sounds like a relatively normal fall sou’easter to be honest.  

 1.6 - 2" pw's November 1st?  Dews approaching 70??  Not normal and again I can't recall this type of torch this late.  Not to say it's a record or never happens, but definitely not 1-2 times every year.

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

If you don't radiate then it's even a bit late for freeze. But the Lowell coop up there actually had first freeze 10/6. That's earlier than their 10/14 average. But they are clearly a rad spot. 

I am around 170-180 ft, at the bottom of Fox Hill and further SW Billerica center which are like 250 350'+. I do radiate but it's not a hole. It seems late for not hitting 32.

Lowest here 34.2...well outside of the tarmac. Undoubtedly a mild month.

3 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Maybe it's my hang-up, but to me temp departures of <2° aren't "real" mild or "real" cool.  I'm going to finish about -0.2°, about as close to dead-on average as one might expect.  (Today's avg here is 49/30 and I expect it to verify about +12.)

Departures plus sensible wx. Without cold nights and few to no 70's and 80's to skew, it has been quite mild and with remarkable consistency. Speaking for here. Undeniable.

47 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The high temp today is just as likely to be 65F at BDL and BOS as it is 50F.  

It’s really crazy how skewed the climo perception is right now. 

70F with 60's dews and a squall line later... not climo. Lol

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think he meant the consistency of the 50s and 60s. Usually we have at least a few days in the 40s mixed in but we haven't really had that. Even the 70s have been pretty rare. It's been really steady slightly above average. ORH has had exactly one day with highs in the 40s (47 this past Sunday). That's not really typical. We haven't had that signature cold shot that gives many their first freeze. Mostly just the rad spots got freezes. 

I wouldn't say its overly rare though. I remember 1994 and 1998 being quite mild. Obviously we remember the super torch of 2017 but that was different than this month which was really steady. 

Yeah, consistently mild and we haven't had a freeze going into November, here. Not saying a torch month but unusually consistent with the mild.

sound 'em

7 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Love it.  Keep it up until Turkalurk Dae 

Yeah, could do without the rain but this is awesome otw.

torch

20 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It’s even like that here.   Folks look at mid November and expect 30s for a high....12-15 below normal 

It has been a real mild one here in civilization.

bos 2.9 bdl 2.2 pvd 1.3 orh .7

I cannot ever remember seeing 65-70F with near tropical dews at Halloween. And consistent 50s/60s nearly the entire month. Even as a youngster

8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

AO and EPO are favorable for the foreseeable future.  Gefs and Eps also agree so idk why you and others are denying it.

Favorable for a step-down

Temps and dews too warm for ToT, cancel

<3

4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

VERY strong wording from LWX. Their headline in the short term portion of the AFD is 

A potentially dangerous weather event is unfolding for Thursday

congrats

I missed the ENH upgrade.. guess that was predictable with 70F dews, strong forcing and high shear. If there's a little more Cape realized, look out

   ...Portions of the PA/NY vicinity southward/southwestward to the
   southern Appalachians...
   A zone of showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start
   of the period from the mid Ohio Valley/Mid South region
   south-southwestward to the western Gulf of Mexico, in the vicinity
   of an advancing surface cold front.  A secondary area of showers --
   perhaps with some embedded lightning -- will be shifting quickly
   northeastward across the Carolinas/Virginia vicinity.  Only minimal
   severe risk -- mainly in the form of gusty winds or a brief tornado
   -- is apparent at this time within either of these areas of
   convection through the first several hours of the period.

   With time, the advance of the cold front across the southern, and
   then the central, Appalachians during the afternoon in conjunction
   with the strengthening upper system will result in gradual
   organization of a band of frontal convection.  Very strong flow
   aloft will aid in the convective organization, with upscale
   evolution toward a semi-continuous band of storms expected.  By late
   afternoon/early evening, storms will likely have become fairly
   well-organized, crossing south-central and southeastern PA, MD, VA,
   and the Carolinas along with attendant risk for strong/damaging wind
   gusts.  

   Low-level wind profiles will become supportive of supercells during
   the afternoon across the pre-frontal warm sector.  While suggestive
   of some tornado potential, pre-frontal warm-sector storms are
   largely not anticipated.  Still, a few mainly QLCS-type tornadoes
   will be possible, given the overall dynamic/kinematic set-up --
   particularly from late afternoon through mid evening.

   As storms near the coast overnight, gradual weakening of the
   convection -- and associated diminishing of the severe risk -- is
   expected, though limited wind risk will likely extend to near the
   mid Atlantic/Carolina coasts overnight.

Too bad it fades coming NE..a little svr threat for the MA anyway

winter in winter, please

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

That makes sense. 22z would be 6pm and it was still light out so that matches my memory. Doesn't get dark until closer to 7 in late September. Looks like it started around 5:40pm. 

I forgot how late it was, it seemed to be just before sunset in SE MA. I think what helped at the time was the sun was setting, not sure it would have snowed a few hours earlier.

want


The biggest question mark is on how much of the winds mix to
the surface. Strong low-level warm advection in the lowest part
of the column may keep stability profiles closer to weakly
stable until we get on the backside of the cold front; that
stability profile could in turn result in less of a percentage
of this strong jet to translate to surface gusts. Felt the most
confident on winds capable of producing damage across the Cape
and the Islands, into the southern coast of MA and towards Block
Island and Newport Counties. Even if 60 percent of the flow
mixed to the ground, that still gets you at least into Advisory
criteria, with potential for stronger. What may also transpire
is strong/damaging winds could accompany the front itself
embedded in the dynamic/strong cold frontal heavy showers
(accompanied by elevated instability/thunder). Do feel potential
exists for 40 to 60 mph gusts in the Watch area, especially in
the pre-dawn to early-mid Friday morning period. So this may be
a little bit different than prior strong wind events experienced
in October. Given the potential and the model
signals/consistency, think it was worth raising awareness with
the Watch at this point in time.

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah it was later in the day up here. 

Iirc it snowed at 40-45F in Attleboro...like Will said, started as graupel and eventually cooled enough to flip

14 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I actually remember the snow on 9/30/92. I was outside playing and it started as a shower and quickly went to graupel and then some legit flakes mixed in at peak intensity. It was pretty awesome. 

Was the snow in the afternoon/evening? Pretty sure I recall the same.