I may eat a huge plate of crow, but we'll see.
BOX seems more than "meh"
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Shortwave moves through the upper flow and drives a cold front
through Southern New England. Conditions will remain unstable
through the day. Model CAPEs build to 2000-3000 J/Kg which is
impressive for Southern New England. Highest values are expected
over CT-RI-SE Mass in the afternoon. Favorable instability is
also reflected in other indices... Totals around 50, Mid level
lapse rates around 6.5, and Lifted Indices well below zero.
HREF probability of 0-3 Km Helicity over 100 is 80
percent...over 200 is 30 percent. Winds at 850 mb reach 30 kt,
while at 500 mb they reach 40-45 kt. Most of this and other
values suggest a potential for strong storms. The values, and
the timing of the cold front, favor Northern MA in the morning
and CT-RI-SE Mass in the afternoon. Strong wind gusts are the
prime concern, but a storm that develops sufficient helicity
could generate large hail. We are adding stronger wording to
the thunderstorm forecast based on these potentials.