We pray
An upper trough will pivot eastward on Wednesday, spreading 30-40 kt
midlevel southwesterly flow across the region. Surface dewpoints in
the mid 60s to low 70s will be transported northward across the
Piedmont of NC/VA into the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Strong heating
through this corridor will result in moderate to strong instability
and thunderstorms will develop over higher terrain during the early
afternoon. As convection spreads eastward, some guidance suggests
upscale growth is possible, with one or more line segments tracking
across the region. Effective shear is somewhat marginal, around 25
kt, and midlevel lapse rates modest. But higher PW values and
pockets of steep low-level lapse rates could be sufficient for storm
organization along outflows and areas of damaging wind will be
possible. At this time, its still unclear where greater potential
will develop and will maintain Marginal probs at this time, though
upgrades could be needed in subsequent updates if current trends
continue.