Torch Tiger

1.6 - 2" pw's November 1st? Dews approaching 70?? Not normal and again I can't recall this type of torch this late. Not to say it's a record or never happens, but definitely not 1-2 times every year.

I am around 170-180 ft, at the bottom of Fox Hill and further SW Billerica center which are like 250 350'+. I do radiate but it's not a hole. It seems late for not hitting 32.

Lowest here 34.2...well outside of the tarmac. Undoubtedly a mild month.

Departures plus sensible wx. Without cold nights and few to no 70's and 80's to skew, it has been quite mild and with remarkable consistency. Speaking for here. Undeniable.

70F with 60's dews and a squall line later... not climo. Lol

Yeah, consistently mild and we haven't had a freeze going into November, here. Not saying a torch month but unusually consistent with the mild.

sound 'em

Yeah, could do without the rain but this is awesome otw.

torch

It has been a real mild one here in civilization. bos 2.9 bdl 2.2 pvd 1.3 orh .7

I cannot ever remember seeing 65-70F with near tropical dews at Halloween. And consistent 50s/60s nearly the entire month. Even as a youngster

Favorable for a step-down

Temps and dews too warm for ToT, cancel

<3

congrats

I missed the ENH upgrade.. guess that was predictable with 70F dews, strong forcing and high shear. If there's a little more Cape realized, look out ...Portions of the PA/NY vicinity southward/southwestward to the southern Appalachians... A zone of showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period from the mid Ohio Valley/Mid South region south-southwestward to the western Gulf of Mexico, in the vicinity of an advancing surface cold front. A secondary area of showers -- perhaps with some embedded lightning -- will be shifting quickly northeastward across the Carolinas/Virginia vicinity. Only minimal severe risk -- mainly in the form of gusty winds or a brief tornado -- is apparent at this time within either of these areas of convection through the first several hours of the period. With time, the advance of the cold front across the southern, and then the central, Appalachians during the afternoon in conjunction with the strengthening upper system will result in gradual organization of a band of frontal convection. Very strong flow aloft will aid in the convective organization, with upscale evolution toward a semi-continuous band of storms expected. By late afternoon/early evening, storms will likely have become fairly well-organized, crossing south-central and southeastern PA, MD, VA, and the Carolinas along with attendant risk for strong/damaging wind gusts. Low-level wind profiles will become supportive of supercells during the afternoon across the pre-frontal warm sector. While suggestive of some tornado potential, pre-frontal warm-sector storms are largely not anticipated. Still, a few mainly QLCS-type tornadoes will be possible, given the overall dynamic/kinematic set-up -- particularly from late afternoon through mid evening. As storms near the coast overnight, gradual weakening of the convection -- and associated diminishing of the severe risk -- is expected, though limited wind risk will likely extend to near the mid Atlantic/Carolina coasts overnight.

Too bad it fades coming NE..a little svr threat for the MA anyway

winter in winter, please

I forgot how late it was, it seemed to be just before sunset in SE MA. I think what helped at the time was the sun was setting, not sure it would have snowed a few hours earlier.

want The biggest question mark is on how much of the winds mix to the surface. Strong low-level warm advection in the lowest part of the column may keep stability profiles closer to weakly stable until we get on the backside of the cold front; that stability profile could in turn result in less of a percentage of this strong jet to translate to surface gusts. Felt the most confident on winds capable of producing damage across the Cape and the Islands, into the southern coast of MA and towards Block Island and Newport Counties. Even if 60 percent of the flow mixed to the ground, that still gets you at least into Advisory criteria, with potential for stronger. What may also transpire is strong/damaging winds could accompany the front itself embedded in the dynamic/strong cold frontal heavy showers (accompanied by elevated instability/thunder). Do feel potential exists for 40 to 60 mph gusts in the Watch area, especially in the pre-dawn to early-mid Friday morning period. So this may be a little bit different than prior strong wind events experienced in October. Given the potential and the model signals/consistency, think it was worth raising awareness with the Watch at this point in time.

Iirc it snowed at 40-45F in Attleboro...like Will said, started as graupel and eventually cooled enough to flip

Was the snow in the afternoon/evening? Pretty sure I recall the same.

Cold right where we want it.

BWI 7.1" DCA 2.4" IAD 8.2" RIC 1.5" SBY 4"

The 31 mph gusts and rain showers would be too much struggle street for the kiddos