let's get after it
...Northeast States and Ohio Valley regions...
Shortwave trough now situated over ND near the international border
will continue into the Great Lakes Friday, reaching the northeast
states later Friday afternoon and evening. A low amplitude impulse
may precede this feature. By late afternoon the accompanying cold
front should extend from a surface low in upstate NY southwest into
the lower Great Lakes and OH Valley. Warm front will extend from the
surface low through southern New England. Modest low-level moisture
with upper 50s to around 60 F dewpoints will advect through the
pre-frontal warm sector and contribute to 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE as
the surface layer warms during the afternoon. Thunderstorms are
expected to redevelop along and ahead of the front by early to mid
afternoon within the weakly capped, destabilizing warm sector. A
mid-level jet within the base of the approaching shortwave trough
will contribute to 35-45 kt effective bulk shear over the northeast
U.S. supporting organized storms including a few supercells and
bowing segments with damaging wind the main threat. The low-level
jet is forecast to strengthen by late afternoon into early evening
across the northeast U.S. with 0-1 km hodographs becoming sufficient
for isolated tornadoes, especially with any storms interacting with
the warm front across southern New England. Farther west across OH,
deep-layer shear will be weaker, but wind profiles with 40-45 kt
flow in the 700-500 mb layer will be supportive of a few damaging
wind gusts as the boundary layer destabilizes during the afternoon.