I'd like to see intensity of at least a 4, before thinking about a ragged multi-landfall cane on a NNE to possibly NE heading, making it up here with any gusto. I mean, Donna is the only one I can think of.
I want a pure tropical system. That track is impossible in early August. let's save the 38 type strike for late Sept. or Oct. Perhaps some wrap around snows like 1804
I have had a lot of 90-92s here and locally which translates to your hi 80s in GC. arent you in an elevated part of the valley, too? That will lop off a degree or two from valley floor more often than not