of the approaching storm, while S winds slowly increase and
temps remain steady or slowly rise. Strongest winds expected
late AM into the afternoon on Monday as an 85-90kt H9 LLJ
develops. GFS/NAM MOS guidance winds at KJFK both show
sustained winds over 40 kt by 18Z Mon, some of the highest ever
seen there outside of tropical cyclones. Looking at wind gusts,
model soundings show typical model biases in play, with the NAM
too inverted over land and the GFS too well mixed. Split the
difference via a 2:1 NAM/GFS blend, as the NAM shows a little
more focused LLJ toward the coast, and modified temps/mixing
heights using MOS guidance hourly temps. This yields wind gusts
65-70 mph at the coast, and as high as 60-65 mph inland, mainly
the higher elevations and exposed areas such as along the Hudson
River. Can not totally rule out isolated 75-80 mph gusts across
Long Island and coastal SE CT.