Torch Tiger

we stay dry

we stay dry...dry cfp

Oops nm, from this afternoon.

let's get after it ...Northeast States and Ohio Valley regions... Shortwave trough now situated over ND near the international border will continue into the Great Lakes Friday, reaching the northeast states later Friday afternoon and evening. A low amplitude impulse may precede this feature. By late afternoon the accompanying cold front should extend from a surface low in upstate NY southwest into the lower Great Lakes and OH Valley. Warm front will extend from the surface low through southern New England. Modest low-level moisture with upper 50s to around 60 F dewpoints will advect through the pre-frontal warm sector and contribute to 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE as the surface layer warms during the afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop along and ahead of the front by early to mid afternoon within the weakly capped, destabilizing warm sector. A mid-level jet within the base of the approaching shortwave trough will contribute to 35-45 kt effective bulk shear over the northeast U.S. supporting organized storms including a few supercells and bowing segments with damaging wind the main threat. The low-level jet is forecast to strengthen by late afternoon into early evening across the northeast U.S. with 0-1 km hodographs becoming sufficient for isolated tornadoes, especially with any storms interacting with the warm front across southern New England. Farther west across OH, deep-layer shear will be weaker, but wind profiles with 40-45 kt flow in the 700-500 mb layer will be supportive of a few damaging wind gusts as the boundary layer destabilizes during the afternoon.

falling heights, decent lapse rates

locked

terrifying and perhaps deadly day

let's go ...Northeast States... A northern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress quickly eastward/southeastward across the Great Lakes into the Northeast States on Friday. Strong mid-level flow attendant to this system will spread eastward just ahead of it while an associated surface low and cold front also move across the Northeast. Temperatures and dewpoints ahead of this front are forecast to reach the mid 70s and upper 50s/low 60s, respectively, resulting in modest instability. Thunderstorm development is anticipated during the afternoon as the front interacts with this instability. Low to mid-level flow will strengthen over the region as the shortwave trough approaches, contributing to both moderate vertical shear and fast storm motions. Fast-moving bowing line segments, which may eventually amalgamate into a coherent convective line, will be the predominant storm mode. Damaging wind gusts from these bowing segments will be the primary severe hazard, although some isolated hail may occur, particularly with any more cellular/discrete storms. Additionally, moderate veering of the low-level wind profiles will support a low-probably tornado potential with both discrete development ahead of the line and line-embedded circulations.

it is not snow so we good

all of the doom and gloom talk aside, beautiful day out there. 57.8 and deep blue sky

central conus..wwlt

yeah, the extended is going to blow. Maybe we will get a few good days anyway

want

hospitals overwhelmed with back injuries from heavy installs

Hopefully late June right through September is 80's every single day with lots of 90's and 100's, but it's too early now, I just want storms.

We'll stay cooler at times, just hoping for active wx

Light storm with a few cg's

Maybe some flooding near smithfield/Cumberland, twdr picking up a slow moving cell there

just a rain shower here

what a torch

Looks pretty light overall

Sweet, euro op and ens are an all-out torch with usual bd caveats here

Compared to yesterday, yeah