Torch Tiger

looks fine

* A approaching cold front will bring strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. Saturday: SPC continues to include much of southern New England under a slight risk for severe weather, with the main threat being straight-line damaging winds. During the morning, anticipating mainly elevated convection with a threat of for locally heavy rain. During the afternoon, surface-based instability increases to 1000- 2000+ J/kg, with with 35-45 kts of shear, while a cold front approaches and passes through much of SNE. Ahead of the cold front, we maintain 1.5-2 inch PWATs, thus locally heavy rainfall is expected. This could produce urban and poor drainage flooding. It should be noted that with the 12Z CAMs, they have backed off some on the areal coverage of convection across SNE, will need to keep an eye on future runs. At this time, the greatest threat for severe weather looks to be across northern CT, thru central RI and SE MA in the afternoon/early evening.

Ahead of the front, a seasonally moist airmass will be in place, with mid/upper 60s F dewpoints common. While midlevel lapse rates will remain modest, heating into the 80s F will support 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer flow will remain mostly unidirectional, though increasing speeds with height will support 35-45 kt effective shear magnitudes across the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. As a result, organized supercells and bowing clusters are possible. Steep low-level lapse rates and high PW values, combined with rather weak low-level shear will favor damaging gust potential. Modest lapse rates and somewhat warm temperatures aloft will limit the large hail potential, but any organized/sustained supercell could produce marginally severe hail.

Tuesday looks interesting!

87.3! let's go!

Temperatures... An unremarkable temperature forecast for the extended forecast period, with no big intrusions of especially hot or cold air expected. 850 mb temps hover around 12-13C each day which will lead to surface highs in the 80s each day, perhaps a bit cooler behind Tuesday`s shortwave. oh only 80's

bang this tomorrow, great song

86-87 wasn't terrible but not great

Hope so

yeah wow, remember when people said Stein was no big deal, not worth watching...now here we are

crushing on Saturday

just had a day in the U80's to 90's regionwide, in fact HFD had back-to-back 90+

90+ degrees is not hot to you...got it

Staggering dews on Saturday, gonna be a hot one

Love this hot summer wx!

yeah, it's over. but decent show

great storm, had to shut down the PCs. Had at least 5 c/g within 1 mile

shades of '89

nice summer night out there, even a few light bangers moving across SNH. take

we're gonna party like it's 1989

I just want extensive damage from severe storms

yeah maybe Aug/Sept, otherwise forget it

Yeah I don't recall specifically, IIRC '88 was a fairly hot summer, '89 was more normal. Neither below much ( at least for SNE), but I could be wrong

'89 popping off in CPC analogs

wow Friday into Sunday... Looks like Friday will be the best chance for widespread 90s, all the way to the eastern MA coast. 925mb temps rise to +23 to +26C and with Bufkit soundings showing strong southwesterly flow with boundary layer winds 25 to 30 kt, should see widespread low to mid 90s with even a few upper 90s possible. Blended guidance shows dew points on the rise into the low to mid 60s but if such deep boundary layer mixing materializes, lower dew points on top of the BL will mix down and the breezy if not gusty conditions should help make the heat feel more manageable. Also, with a southwest wind, coolest spots will be across the south coast into Cape Cod and Islands with Merrimack valley being the warmest spots.