Valid 271801Z - 271930Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395
continues.
SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts continues across western
and central NY. A downstream watch across eastern NY and adjacent
areas will likely be needed soon.
DISCUSSION...Radar and visible satellite imagery show two lines of
convection pushing across western and central NY. The lead line
extends from RME southwestward to ITH. The second line extends from
FZY southwestward to OLE. While initially stronger, the lead line
has been on a weakening trend for the past half hour. In contract,
the second has seen a gradual increase in intensity. This increase
in intensity appears to be associated with a modest increase in
instability and decrease in convective inhibition ahead of the line.
Additionally, new development has recently occurred over Cattaraugus
and Allegany Counties as the second line intersects the outflow of
the leading convective line. Deep westerly flow aloft will result in
fast storm motion as well as the potential for damaging wind gusts
as these storms continue eastward.
Current estimated storm motion is about 45 kt with the north end of
the line. As a result, it is expected to reach the edge of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 395 around or before 19Z. Given the recent
trends, a downstream watch will likely be needed across more of
eastern NY and adjacent southern VT, western/central MA, and
northern CT.