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Torch Tiger

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Everything posted by Torch Tiger

  1. Yeah, a great summer stretch coming. Maybe a brief break or two over the next two weeks, but that's it. let's get those SSTs primed for the multiple hurricane threats too
  2. Yeah it's been an extended dew-wave and seems to continue for a while. No complaints at all
  3. Heavy rain, a few wind gusts and a few flashes.
  4. Right along the south coast, ok...but for most it's a non-event besides some rain and thunder
  5. Yeah, the past few days most of the models were driving that MCS activity way southwest of us, that's usually the kiss of death
  6. Looks like wagons south, though never really looked good for most of SNE. NYC/LI/S coast possibly
  7. Had a decent downpour and a little wind, maybe 30mph. A few flashes. Looks real good BOS/PVD
  8. Nothing expected here, hopefully SW of here gets a nice hit though.
  9. Less than 5 months away from days getting longer again!
  10. Valid 271801Z - 271930Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts continues across western and central NY. A downstream watch across eastern NY and adjacent areas will likely be needed soon. DISCUSSION...Radar and visible satellite imagery show two lines of convection pushing across western and central NY. The lead line extends from RME southwestward to ITH. The second line extends from FZY southwestward to OLE. While initially stronger, the lead line has been on a weakening trend for the past half hour. In contract, the second has seen a gradual increase in intensity. This increase in intensity appears to be associated with a modest increase in instability and decrease in convective inhibition ahead of the line. Additionally, new development has recently occurred over Cattaraugus and Allegany Counties as the second line intersects the outflow of the leading convective line. Deep westerly flow aloft will result in fast storm motion as well as the potential for damaging wind gusts as these storms continue eastward. Current estimated storm motion is about 45 kt with the north end of the line. As a result, it is expected to reach the edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395 around or before 19Z. Given the recent trends, a downstream watch will likely be needed across more of eastern NY and adjacent southern VT, western/central MA, and northern CT.
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