Torch Tiger

Less than 5 months away from days getting longer again!

Valid 271801Z - 271930Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts continues across western and central NY. A downstream watch across eastern NY and adjacent areas will likely be needed soon. DISCUSSION...Radar and visible satellite imagery show two lines of convection pushing across western and central NY. The lead line extends from RME southwestward to ITH. The second line extends from FZY southwestward to OLE. While initially stronger, the lead line has been on a weakening trend for the past half hour. In contract, the second has seen a gradual increase in intensity. This increase in intensity appears to be associated with a modest increase in instability and decrease in convective inhibition ahead of the line. Additionally, new development has recently occurred over Cattaraugus and Allegany Counties as the second line intersects the outflow of the leading convective line. Deep westerly flow aloft will result in fast storm motion as well as the potential for damaging wind gusts as these storms continue eastward. Current estimated storm motion is about 45 kt with the north end of the line. As a result, it is expected to reach the edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395 around or before 19Z. Given the recent trends, a downstream watch will likely be needed across more of eastern NY and adjacent southern VT, western/central MA, and northern CT.

lfg ...NY/New England... Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop by midday over parts of western NY and/or adjoining ON, along and south of the front. Activity should increase in coverage and move mostly eastward across central/eastern portions of NY and south-central New England through the afternoon, its movement aligned with an instability gradient and boundary-layer moist axis. Damaging to locally severe wind gusts will be the main concern. Confidence has increased that enough large-scale lift (related to the MCV) and diurnal low-level destabilization will occur to support maintenance of the threat eastward into New England. The 15% wind area has been extended accordingly. Surface dewpoints generally in the low/mid 60s F will be common in the preconvective environment across the region, with minimal MLCINH. Accordingly modified RAOBs and forecast soundings suggest that -- despite weak midlevel lapse rates -- MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg will develop (locally/briefly higher), atop a reasonably well-mixed boundary layer with steep low-level lapse rates. A roughly unidirectional deep-layer wind profile is expected, with effective-shear magnitudes in the 30-40-kt range. Given the weak capping and progressive regime of ascent preceding the MCV, some cold-pool aggregation may occur in upscale growth of convection, enabling forward propagation to impinge on the destabilized boundary layer, potentially as far east as the MA and perhaps NH coastlines given the westerly flow that can advect favorable boundary-layer theta-e that far.

Love this weather and smoke.

Yeah it doesn't look too impressive, but the s/w and wind field are somewhat respectable anyway. Hopefully modeled dews are a bit low because there's some upside

12-20"? of course not, August is a dry month outside of tropical interests and occasional connections

A great way to end a fantastic and exciting month. Wild one, we take.

Maybe in December and January looks quite active through late July - Early Aug. to me.

Yeah the hits keep coming, hopefully it's a big day for many.

It rained!

South of pike?

Cooked for most areas it seems?

don't care if it is smoky and air quality blows, love this pattern. W and NW flow forever in summer.

That was predictable looking at radar 20-30 minutes ago but didn't want to say anything

looks decent, at least for the NW interior the next hour/2

You're in a good spot!

We've got W or NW flow next week so maybe one properly timed s/w rounding the ridge will do something.

Tomorrow was always a south of pike day. Miss here but we'll watch and enjoy anyway

Wednesday... Interesting set up Wed as a fairly robust mid level trough moves across the region providing good forcing for ascent. Steep mid level lapse rates 6.5-7 C/km above warm and humid airmass will contribute to a rather unstable environment with CAPES 1500-2500 J/kg. Scattered to numerous showers/t-storms expected to develop along the attendant cold front which slowly moves across SNE. Exact timing and placement is uncertain but convection may begin during the morning and continuing through the afternoon as front will be moving into the region by Wed morning. Modest deep layer shear in place for storm organization with 3km NAM indicating potential for multicellular clusters. There appears to increasing risk for at least a few strong to severe storms. Confidence in the details is low at this point we are not yet in the window for the full suite of Hi-res CAMs.

it's been nicer here, whereas over the MA border and esp. CNH has been doored quite a bit. Apples and oranges

It's summer, prime-time. Why wouldn't I enjoy it? Sure we've had some crap days, but most of the time has been warm and humid, almost no cool and dry weather at all. I never understood why people complain about weather, especially the winter fiends inJanuary and not snowing every day. At least it's winter (if you enjoy that)

Wednesday looks good pike/south!

we're all rooting for you!

Love this pattern!!!!

Yeah it was but you know more than I do about '38. lol