Torch Tiger

any damage?

BOX Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/... Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Rain showers likely, chance of thunderstorms. Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Rain showers likely. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, patchy fog. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Looks great for central CT. Multiple rounds coming?

Congrats

basically nada here

Fine, I'm just saying the odds of getting anything good this far north are low.

its all way south of us today. next

No charts?

Doesn't look like much relief honestly, maybe a slight dry down but no crisp Canadian airmasses in sight.

let's go!

cams look decent

Ggem is a bit NW too. Looks wet

If the gfs and Euro are anywhere close to correct, we'll have some severe weather chances D8-10

Cool and damp enough to see my breath. sheeeeesh

Bring those dews

We deserve a few crap days for that last heatwave. Too bad it's a peak summer weekend.

Decent good 'ol fashioned summer storm, about as good as expected. Getting +cg right now

Yeah, that was decent!

35-40mph gust

Thunder

Yeah watch at 3:20. Congrats all!

DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing in coverage and intensity across parts of central PA into central/eastern NY along/east of a weak surface trough and zone of differential heating. Some of these storms have a history of producing both marginally severe hail and damaging wind gusts across central NY. Recent surface observations and area VWPs show low-level winds are generally veered to west-southwesterly, which is limiting low-level convergence. Still, current expectations are for the ongoing convection to gradually spread eastward across parts of northeastern PA into far northern NJ, southern NY, and CT/RI/MA through the remainder of the afternoon. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE should be sufficient for an organized severe threat. The primary risk should be scattered severe/damaging wind gusts as storms will probably tend to form into small bowing clusters with eastward extent. But, occasional marginally severe hail may also occur with any convection that can remain semi-discrete. A downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed.

95.4

Nice dude. Glad you and the fam are okay

Let's go!