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Torch Tiger

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Everything posted by Torch Tiger

  1. Torch Tiger
    would be hilarious to see this thing weaken as the shear lessens
  2. Torch Tiger
    Cravings. I wouldn't discount a period of RI and maybe a cat 4.
  3. Torch Tiger
    One thing I noticed is that there is a stronger/more well-defined and better positioned 300mb and 250mb jet across the eastern Lakes on the NAM the past few cycles. Interesting
  4. Torch Tiger
    Basically perfect out there.
  5. Torch Tiger
    lfg
  6. Torch Tiger
    Yeah the center probably won't get that far west. Regardless SST's easily support a major hurricane east of that rocket fuel and the western edge of the storm should be over that area.
  7. Torch Tiger
    If this is a Cat 4 or bordering 5 near or after it makes the turn. (highly unlikely but not impossible), we could be dealing with a very different situation. Let's go!
  8. Torch Tiger
    Buoy east of HAT, near Henri's projected path. NDBC Location: 34.775N 72.167W Date: Wed, 18 Aug 2021 21:20:00 UTC Winds: ESE (120°) at 7.8 kt gusting to 9.7 kt Atmospheric Pressure: 30.19 in Air Temperature: 83.7 F Dew Point: 76.8 F Water Temperature: 84.6 F
  9. Torch Tiger
    Yeah, that could be the case. Above normal SSTs and wedged within a fairly deep? tropical airmass could be upsides to sustaining itself a bit longer.
  10. Torch Tiger
    On the NAM (lol), travels roughly 275-300 miles in 18 hours. 12z Sat- 06z Sun..looks like around 20mph or maybe a bit faster on the last 6 hours of that, though.
  11. Torch Tiger
    You are correct concerning the wind threat, which is what most weenies crave. The coastal flooding and precip of course could be higher end, even historic
  12. Torch Tiger
    I'm not too excited about a storm traveling ~10kt over and beyond the north wall of the GS. lol Not to say we couldn't get a impressive storm. Need a partial capture/phase and at least 15-20kt though
  13. Torch Tiger
    quintessential summer, just need that hurricane hit!
  14. Torch Tiger
    Belle was gutted as it passed 37-38N though. 120mph to 75 in like 15 hours
  15. Torch Tiger
    Yeah, it's not going to be a FM but it'll probably be faster than guidance shows.
  16. Torch Tiger
    Yeah I don't think anyone wants it to stall just offshore or on the coast. we want it moving quickly and well inland
  17. Torch Tiger
  18. Torch Tiger
    up and in...let's go!!!
  19. Torch Tiger
    There were individual 12z gfs ensemble members with hits or near-misses, too. I don't think this is a done-deal, not impossible but highly unlikely much more than some surf and maybe showers
  20. Torch Tiger
    Let's go
  21. Torch Tiger
    I was thinking the same thing yesterday. My greatest memory in wx, seeing 100+ mph winds and seemingly never-ending damage was pretty special
  22. Torch Tiger
    94.2 for the high!! sweet victory
  23. Torch Tiger
    Honestly I prefer it to be like 90/70 at 2pm but nighttime (8pm-2am) like 75/65.
  24. Torch Tiger
    94.6 for the high. Vicious
  25. Torch Tiger
    hit after hit...congrats dude
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