https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1652.html
DISCUSSION...The threat for damaging straight line winds, hail, and
perhaps a tornado or two, continues for WW 546 this afternoon.
Thunderstorm coverage continues to increase, with the most intense
convection on the northern periphery of the watch being associated
with a MCV progressing eastward out of Lake Ontario. This remnant
MCV will be the greatest short-term threat for damaging winds as it
comes onshore over the next hour, in addition to the line forming on
its southern periphery.
Ahead of the convection, the boundary layer has warmed into the
mid-to-upper 80s F, with dewpoints reaching the low-to-mid 70s F.
This warm, moist boundary layer and associated instability is
overspread by 45-50 kts of deep-layer vertical shear, supporting
both supercells and linear bowing segments.
Forecast profiles east of the convection show some modest curvature
of the low level hodograph, suggesting that the environment does
support at least some tornado potential. This tornado potential
would be maximized with any supercells that remain discrete or
become dominant in an embedded line.