Some weakening is expected overnight while a significant portion of
Elsa's circulation remains over land. However by late Thursday,
more of the storm will be moving over water, and a fair number
of the models suggest re-intensification could take place.
It is a little puzzling why the ECMWF and UKMET models, however,
are showing a strengthening tropical storm close to the
mid-Atlantic states, especially without a significant trough
interaction or warm waters. I'm getting some deja vu in this case
after working Claudette from a few weeks ago, with those same
models also over-intensifying that storm. The GFS has been
relatively consistent in showing only a small intensification of
Elsa, and the NHC forecast will continue to be closer to that
model's relatively weaker solution.
interesting discussion