000
WTNT44 KNHC 022036
TCDAT4
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024
Convection and vorticity associated with the tropical wave, now over
central Cuba, have both increased a little this afternoon. However,
the circulation is still not well-defined, and the convection is
not yet well enough organized to consider the system to be a
tropical depression. So, the system remains a potential tropical
cyclone at this time. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter is currently
investigating the northern side of the wave, and a combination of
its dropsondes and earlier scatterometer data suggest that the
maximum winds remain near 25 kt.
The poorly-defined center has moved more westward since the previous
advisory. However the overall motion remains about 290/14 kt. A
turn toward the northwest and north is expected during the next
couple of days as the system moves into a break in the subtropical
ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the Ohio Valley. This
should be followed by recurvature into the westerlies after 48-60 h.
On the forecast track, the system is expected to move into the
Straits of Florida and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday,
followed by a motion near the west coast of Florida Saturday night
and Sunday. After that time, the system should cross the northern
Florida peninsula and move over the Atlantic near or offshore of
the southeastern coast of the United States. While the track
guidance generally agrees with this scenario, there are a couple of
issues. First, the GFS moves the system much faster northeastward,
and by 72 h it is forecasting the center to be off of the South
Carolina coast. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and UKMET still have the
center over the Gulf of Mexico. Second, due to the track being
almost parallel to both the west coast of the Florida peninsula and
the southeastern U. S. coast, small changes in the track could
cause large differences in potential landfalls and which land areas
receive the strongest impacts.
There is little change in the intensity forecast philosophy from the
previous advisory. Slow development is possible while the system is
over Cuba, and the system is likely to become a tropical depression
soon after it moves offshore on Saturday. The environment over the
Gulf of Mexico is quite favorable for strengthening with light shear
and very warm sea-surface temperatures, so subsequent steady
strengthening is expected. The two biggest uncertainties in the
intensity forecast are how long the system will remain offshore of
Florida and how long it will take to consolidate. The system is
likely to weaken as it crosses Florida, with re-intensification
likely over the Atlantic after 72 h.
