Jump to content

Torch Tiger

Members
  • Posts

    12,072
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Torch Tiger

  1. yeah, the expectations were it would be meh. It lived up to the potential
  2. Hopefully Thursday provides some decent storms.
  3. I think that was a moderate risk that day, and almost nothing developed. Cape was like 1000 j/kg, skinny though, ml lapse rates were horrid and cloud cover prevented much destabilization.
  4. this reminds me of that 6/1/10? event that crapped out.
  5. interesting to watch the radar returns wash out as they touch the south coastline.
  6. Yeah nice little storm by MHT/Londonderry
  7. Let's goooo! Think the better shot for strong/severe storms comes Thursday as a mid level lapse rates are around 6-7 degrees Celsius per km and similar low level lapse rates to Wednesday. Will see MUCAPE values between 1000-2500 J/kg with deep layer shear in the 30-50 kt range with the cold front moving in. Still a bit early to dive too deeply into the exact hazards, but think there could be a severe risk here especially given the latest CIPS Severe Analogs. Stay tuned to future updates. Threat Guidance for 20220716/0000 Run Probability of Severe: 61.2% Climatological Frequency of Severe: 8.72% Significant Atmospheric Fields 1. 2m-mb TMP 2. 0-mb CAPE 3. 2m-mb SPFH 4. 500-mb TMP 5. 850-mb SPFH Top 5 Most Similar Analogs 1. 19980725/0000 2. 19910718/0000 3. 20030715/0000 4. 20140709/0000 5. 20130828/0000
  8. Bring 'er in please! A plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, a reservoir of low-level moisture over parts of the Midwest, agreement/consistency in models showing the strength and evolution of the aforementioned mid-level disturbance, all combine to yield sufficient confidence in the notion for a concentrated area of severe-wind producing thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes on Tuesday (day 5). Considerable uncertainty exists by the end of day 5 into day 6 to preclude any downstream highlights.
  9. Maybe some iso stuff CNE/NNE? wind field is kinda crappy though.
  10. Thursday will probably be a decent severe day.
  11. when things are going off, trees are falling, this is the song
  12. Another exciting summer day to look forward to! Hopefully a few bangers!
  13. Southern /Atlanta/New Orleans DJS started that spare minimalist thing in the early 90's, actually. became known as trap music =)
×
×
  • Create New...