Torch Tiger

Let's goooo! Think the better shot for strong/severe storms comes Thursday as a mid level lapse rates are around 6-7 degrees Celsius per km and similar low level lapse rates to Wednesday. Will see MUCAPE values between 1000-2500 J/kg with deep layer shear in the 30-50 kt range with the cold front moving in. Still a bit early to dive too deeply into the exact hazards, but think there could be a severe risk here especially given the latest CIPS Severe Analogs. Stay tuned to future updates. Threat Guidance for 20220716/0000 Run Probability of Severe: 61.2% Climatological Frequency of Severe: 8.72% Significant Atmospheric Fields 1. 2m-mb TMP 2. 0-mb CAPE 3. 2m-mb SPFH 4. 500-mb TMP 5. 850-mb SPFH Top 5 Most Similar Analogs 1. 19980725/0000 2. 19910718/0000 3. 20030715/0000 4. 20140709/0000 5. 20130828/0000

Bring 'er in please! A plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, a reservoir of low-level moisture over parts of the Midwest, agreement/consistency in models showing the strength and evolution of the aforementioned mid-level disturbance, all combine to yield sufficient confidence in the notion for a concentrated area of severe-wind producing thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes on Tuesday (day 5). Considerable uncertainty exists by the end of day 5 into day 6 to preclude any downstream highlights.

Maybe some iso stuff CNE/NNE? wind field is kinda crappy though.

Thursday will probably be a decent severe day.

Plenty of time left

when things are going off, trees are falling, this is the song

damij

"No big deal" ...

Another exciting summer day to look forward to! Hopefully a few bangers!

Southern /Atlanta/New Orleans DJS started that spare minimalist thing in the early 90's, actually. became known as trap music =)

Maybe get an EML in here middle of next week?

a good soaking tomorrow for some. take

Had a light sprinkle, hopefully the next sprinkle is better with some distant ltg

Thursday may be more widespread than today, maybe we'll get a shower or storm then? Otherwise very dire

Very very dry, no relief in sight.

Hopefully a tor for Tolland

Thanks, looks great!

Yeah looking like a 7/10 split

Looks like crap outside of NNE. Maybe that area SW of ALB can do something but eh, wish I were in NH

Let's go!

Hope so.

NAM looks decent

with the relatively fast low and mid-level jet, I'd probably argue for slightly faster timing, or at least watch for it. If there's a squall line coming out of NYS or VT it'll be moving along pretty good

HRRR looks decent