Torch Tiger

My VP2 jumped from 88.3 to 90.0 in the past 10 minutes.

crapped on

Also this is tomorrow, N/W areas maybe need to keep an eye out. The strongest flow aloft is forecast from the Great Lakes to New England, which warrants an expansion of severe probabilities across portions of New England in this update. Locally damaging winds are expected as multiple clusters/convective bands evolve with time, across the entire slight risk area. In addition, a tornado or two will also be possible -- particularly across the Lower Great Lakes region and into western New England, where with isolated/rotating storms will be possible, given veering low-level winds beneath stronger west-southwesterlies through the mid troposphere.

Monday looking interesting for severe, probably MA pike area most notably.

Hit 97.8, down to 97.4

93.3 tainted by some clouds, hit 94.1

Maybe NNE will get a few storms Sunday pm/night, we wait until Monday.

70.4 for the low, currently 90.8

94.8

Avalanches account for the greatest number of wx deaths in Alaska. We need to melt this stuff away, ASAP

Maybe, maybe not. Please don't forget those who died in Dec. 1992 (17), or 1993 superstorm (270 died, not all were winter wx related of course)...and on, and on. It's not hyperbole I guess my point is that "fun" isn't a good word for more extreme weather; exciting and "awesome" though, yeah.

"hyperbole" ha. The graph obviously does not account for the 1000+ fatalities/year, either indirectly or directly related winter driving conditions. " Weather-Related Vehicle Accidents Far More Deadly Than Tornadoes, Hurricanes, Floods By Chris Dolce February 05, 2022"

Same with winter storms. So many avoidable injuries and deaths, damage and etc. One must be heartless to yearn for such outcomes.

Impressive sky with TCU, anyway. maybe we'll get a shower

Looks good there. miss here, want to go for the ride but route 3 blows this time of day.

will there be anything left standing in Ashby?

fv3 ftw a couple days ago

Is the LI cell going to drop a tor?

what a crushing!

12z gfs is an inferno

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined can see the CIN near the south coast

Yeah that NJ cell looks nasty

Let's get that damage and destruction!

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front crossing the central Appalachians, with a lead pressure trough extending southward roughly along the Champlain/Hudson Valleys. A steady increase in the CU field is noted, as temperatures warm into the low 80s resulting in widespread 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE. A gradual increase in storm development is expected over the next couple of hours, as additional heating/destabilization occurs. Updrafts will be aided by favorable speed shear, amidst moderately strong/roughly unidirectional flow with height on the southeastern side of the southwestern Quebec upper low. As such, storms will become increasingly capable of producing damaging wind gusts -- initially in a more localized manner but become more widespread with time as storm coverage increases and convection grows upscale locally into small clusters/lines. Initial WW issuance is expected within the next hour, extending from the eastern New York into New England.