As has been the case with many days this spring, our convective
potential will be battling very dry air at the mid and upper levels.
Dry air begins to flow into the region behind Friday morning`s
passing shortwave, which will likely inhibit updraft growth as the
second shortwave begins to cross the region during the afternoon.
Models are also varied in how fast we mix out on Friday, as NAM and
GFS model soundings show a capping inversion that sticks around
until almost 23Z Friday. Given how late in the day the cap
erodes, the south coast and Cape Cod may be most at risk for
any convective action, especially given persistent southwest
surface flow.
I am more on the bust train for this one, too many things can go wrong including the above. However there is a lot of upside, so if someone goes it could be pretty good.