Torch Tiger

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front crossing the central Appalachians, with a lead pressure trough extending southward roughly along the Champlain/Hudson Valleys. A steady increase in the CU field is noted, as temperatures warm into the low 80s resulting in widespread 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE. A gradual increase in storm development is expected over the next couple of hours, as additional heating/destabilization occurs. Updrafts will be aided by favorable speed shear, amidst moderately strong/roughly unidirectional flow with height on the southeastern side of the southwestern Quebec upper low. As such, storms will become increasingly capable of producing damaging wind gusts -- initially in a more localized manner but become more widespread with time as storm coverage increases and convection grows upscale locally into small clusters/lines. Initial WW issuance is expected within the next hour, extending from the eastern New York into New England.

wow, great stuff. 74.8 this AM

Hopefully NNE sees some interesting weather tomorrow. Not sure how it pans out SW/W NE, but the rain will be beneficial I am sure.

I was at that game, good times!

A cold front...actually more of a dewpoint front...will move eastward into this hot unstable air mass Thursday afternoon and evening. Wind fields aloft will strengthen as a weak mid-level trough moves through as well, with 30-40 kt of deep layer shear. Surface-based CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and MLCAPE of up to 1500 J/kg indicates plenty of instability. One thing lacking for severe weather will be relative lack of height falls. But model vertical motion is strong and the instability and shear should be sufficient for the development of strong to severe thunderstorms from as early as 11 AM or Noon and lasting into the mid-evening hours. The CAMs indicate potential for broken line segments with the main focus across CT and western and central MA, where updraft helicity swaths are focused. Damaging wind appears to be the primary severe threat, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out in those areas. The least threat is in RI and southeast MA, where the majority of the day should be dry, but remnant showers and thunderstorms may move through late in the day or evening.

hit 95.5, gorgeous!

93.2

HRRR is basically dry south of the pike.

Seems to me threat level has been and is pretty low south of the Pike/BOS/ORH. I still think WNE and north of the pike could see some action. Like Wiz said, the main s/w is curling like N and NNE through ONT/QC instead of more east, that would have helped southern areas. With the marine taint creeping in, that will probably supress convection the more coastal southern areas (and maybe enhance it a bit further north if convection intersects)

Hope everyone enjoys the 95-100 on Sunday!

Need 10% tor or 30% wind/hail probs for ENH, iirc. Maybe NNE? Doubtful for SNE I'd say. Actually Sunday may have a better chance of a more widespread wind/squall line type deal? Temps in the 90's, 50kt h7 winds and front coming in.

Yeah much better chances, but at least we still have the remnant EML showing up (and decent hodos). If something gets going it'll be pretty good.

92.9 for the high, great day!

...Northeast... Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible over western/northern NY during the morning. Cloud breaks and strong heating east of this convection will result in strong destabilization by early afternoon. A seasonably moist airmass featuring upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints will become moderately unstable. The erosion of a weak cap will likely occur over the higher terrain of VT/NH and near the front over central NY with scattered storms likely by early-mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show effective shear 25-45 kt supporting organized storms, including bands and probably several supercells. The main threats will be damaging gusts and large hail, but an isolated tornado risk could also materialize over New England where shear will be strongest. This activity will likely move to the coast by the evening.

12z gfs is loaded with threats! let's go!

Thursday looks fine.

yeah, the expectations were it would be meh. It lived up to the potential

Thursday

Today was trash

Hopefully Thursday provides some decent storms.

Ugly

last few frames were interesting for sure.

yeah, one in south-central NH too.

I think that was a moderate risk that day, and almost nothing developed. Cape was like 1000 j/kg, skinny though, ml lapse rates were horrid and cloud cover prevented much destabilization.

this reminds me of that 6/1/10? event that crapped out.