Torch Tiger

Mesoscale Discussion 1770 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 Areas affected...southern New England into parts of eastern New York and far northern New Jersey Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 291533Z - 291730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A steady increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected through the afternoon, with locally strong wind gusts becoming more likely as the airmass destabilizes. WW issuance will likely be needed. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite loop shows partly sunny conditions across southern New England and into parts of eastern New York and vicinity. Daytime heating through late morning has supported modest destabilization, which will continue into the afternoon given dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. As an MCV now crossing eastern Lake Erie continues to shift eastward, expect storm coverage to increase as afternoon mixed-layer CAPE values rise into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. While low-level flow is forecast to remain weaker as compared to areas farther south, mid-level westerlies near 30 kt will support potential for organized storms and some upscale growth into small-scale bands. Locally strong/damaging wind gusts are expected with the strongest storms, through the afternoon hours, and this potential appears sufficient that WW issuance will likely be required in the next hour. ..Goss/Thompson.. 07/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product

81/73 mostly cloudy

looks like crap here, but hopefully central-southern areas of SNE can cash in

2010

If you want an EF-4 or softball size hail, you really want that hot, dry mid-level capping kinda airmass transplanted from the Plains/midwest. No secret lol

Generally

destruction

We used to severe like this in the 80's/90's!

Yeah that's literally the worst place in SNE or perhaps NE for thunderstorms, besides Taunton or something

big 'Un down there. Nice

Yeah that's almost impossible. NE MA is a death pit for severe. It always dies here, today great example. unless it's along a seabreeze front and something really lucky with large hail/microburst stuff, this is the graveyard.

looks really good! Let's go!

We had a downpour and around 8-9 good strikes, but nothing closer than a mile away. Onto Saturday!

sweet

Hope you see some wild destruction!

Yeah, actually looks like a few decent storms lining up for you. 'grats!

Looks like nothing around here, the usual break in the line between ORH and ASH should win

let's gooooooo

86.3/77

Finally seeing a few splashes of sun, 82.3/75. Breeze picked up as well

Radar coming together across NYS, that's a good sign

Almost no sun here but up to 80.2

that's good, no need for a powerful cane to disrupt SST's only to recurve