Torch Tiger

Good

It's all we have to look forward to. Hope that one works out

Zzzzz

way offshore

so beautiful but cruel

Not bad, you can see a clear shift.

Fumble cool

Typically you want that further NW honestly, these adjustments won't cut it for SNE. Canada sure

You meant sig jump west, but yeah you're right. Need that eastern side to start jumping ship very very far west and soon

nah who does that??

IPA's and floods galore here. 2.17" so far today and crushing

3 days in a row with t-storms, SNE the new Florida

I'll pass on lee, hoping for that 2nd one though. Great track and strength, let's get after it.

big flooding maybe, but not much wind damage besides maybe AEMATT

The boss hyping away as usual

Euro much much faster with the track than yesterday's weenie run

Dead season

Hopefully the core is off the coast hundreds of miles SW of them

ICON and GGEM (eh, i know) into Nova Scotia

There remains a significant amount of spread in both the deterministic and ensemble guidance on when this turn occurs, and then how quickly Lee accelerates northward. For now the NHC track forecast remains closest to the consensus aids, which have slowed a bit from the prior cycle, and the latest track forecast is a bit slower but near the same trajectory as the prior advisory.

please not the NAM

I didn't read the 5pm NHC disc until now, but they mention the turn north, and the gfs being much much faster than the Euro (or GGEM for that matter) Satellite and aircraft fixes show that Lee is moving west- northwestward at about 9 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast philosophy. A mid-level ridge to the north of Lee is foreast to shift west-southwestward during the next few days, causing Lee's forward speed to slow considerably through early next week. By midweek, a mid-latitude trough moving across the Great Lakes region and into the eastern United States is expected to weaken the ridge and allow Lee to turn north-northwestward and northward on days 4 and 5. There is still a significant amount of spread in the deterministic guidance and global model ensembles as to exactly when and where the northward turn takes place. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF models are about 275 n mi apart at day 5, primarily due to along-track spread related to how fast Lee begins moving northward. The NHC track forecast continues to lie near the latest consensus aids, and the new track is very similar to the previous forecast.

15-year-old on a dirtbike (3 of them total) with no headlight was just hit by a car. I didn't see it but heard it, pretty disturbing, was around 20-30 people outside. He was alive when he went in ambulance but he was out for a good minute or two.

Otherwise by D4 or so, the main players are fairly similar on both.