BOX says meh. next
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Overall theme of the ongoing forecast continues. Did tweak
rainfall chances and timing this evening using the latest runs
of a time-lagged HRRR ensemble and the latest NationalBlend
output. Storms from earlier this evening struggled to make it
all the way to the east coast of New England intact. Mixed layer
CAPE values drop sharply from about I-495 to the coast.
Expecting this trend to continue. Thinking there will be some
thunderstorms overnight, just not very strong ones.
The greatest concern for the overnight remains the high humidity
and potential for downpours. Much of the area within the Flood
Watch across southern New England saw significant rainfall
yesterday. Many small waterways were running higher, meaning it
will take less rainfall to start seeing problems where heavy
rainfall develops, especially if it moves slowly.