Torch Tiger

I would ignore that model and go off typical D3-5 lead in that "look" ;O I feel like it'll be a dousing for some but 1-2"++?, while most are .25-.50 BUT I have no idea what is going on, perhaps a pro can chime in.

not gonna interject but I think Tip gets it but FIGHT!!!!

Yeah There will be some heavy showers, the smoothed out look does not reflect the ground-truth. There will be haves and have-nots obviously

I don't know about that- not 100% anyway - seems like at least some decent showers will roll through. I'd wager at least .50 for your locale, but is real

If anything it'll trend weak and north, models (non-mesos) love blowing up those meso lows in coarse grids. I could be wrong

we everywhere

you'll see 1" Monday AM

lfg

Looks like a typical seasonal progression going forward- EOM into July could be a roaster.

jakob mcmillin live

so far

chaser TornadoTRX was hit by it.

large unwarned tornado in IL

Not a bad 24-hour lead for our region Ahead of this early activity, a warm front will push north-northeastward across Indiana/Ohio. New severe storm development, perhaps MCV-influenced and transitioning out of the remnant activity and/or forming near the warm front, is possible across Indiana into Ohio. Shear profiles will be excessive, with tornado risk only conditional on minimal instability being present. The result may be a isolated tornadic supercells. The warm frontal position will need to be monitored northward toward the Indiana/Michigan border vicinity. Even if instability is elevated into Michigan, extreme shear and lift may still yield damaging winds and even a tornado risk.

I wasn't comparing them like that-lol but both seem to be missing steep ml llase rates, and that is usually the one key missing ingredient in sne setups that fail.