tiger_deF

Some of these EPS members get in the 940's, when's the last time we've had a winter system that deep?

Looks like the cards are setting up for another model battle, should be exciting to resolve this week!

Compared to the EPS members this would be a middle of the pack-lower end solution, but I'd take the GFS verbatim. Hopefully it holds this look, if the southern stream is just a little more cooperative then boom

If the central pressure of this system ends up near the lower floor of modelled pressures (let's say ~960's mb), what could we expect for maximum winds? Given the current track Cape Cod would probably get the worst of it, but I could see a storm of this magnitude having a fairly large fetch of winds.

Just a general meteorological question; I understand that closed low pressure systems tend to form from shortwaves that elongate troughs to the point of separating them from a synoptic ridge/trough pattern and "closes" them off, but how come these low pressure systems tend to intensify so much more, and appear more symmetrical, over water?

We just need to stop the bleeding right now

My worst fear is that we'll see every subsequent model run back off slightly until by Friday we have a middling event

The Falcons just can't catch a break...

Hopefully we see the GFS tick east and slightly deeper to both mitigate some of the mixing issues and keep the shield of precipitation nice and broad. Unfortunately this season the EURO has seemed to follow the GFS more than vice versa, so shifts in this evening's/tonight's runs would be excellent

I say we reach 100 pages by Wednesday, forget about in total

So what I'm hearing here is, unlike other synoptic setups of some past storms, is that the stronger the low the less tainting there could be?

People are paranoid because this is the kind of synoptic setup that has the potential to truly produce a historic beast... provided that all the factors (northern stream, southern stream, positioning of disturbances, high pressure interactions) line up just right. With models setting expectations this high this early, while the end result could end up being exactly what is modeled now, there will certainly be some movement with us being 5 days out. Getting 6 inches of snow as a max out of this system would leave the board majorly disappointed, while getting 6 inches out of a system that comes out of nowhere would be considered exciting.

If this thing ends up in NY/Philly like the abortion a few weeks ago the board is gonna lose it

Look at Mr. Ice Miser over here with snow left to melt

I wouldn't be surprised if, given the modeled strength of this upcoming system, if a good chunk of SNE got anywhere from a coating to 3" of snow just from the outer precipitation bands.

Likewise. Almost certainly will whiff, but if you took the NAM and bumped it 50 miles to the west that would be feet of snow for parts of SNE. Just an absolute conveyer belt of moisture

I think our best shot at getting a decent amount of snow from Friday is the system shooting to the North slightly faster than currently modeled. The NW high, with accompanying arctic air, will prevent the system from being tugged West and will in the end force it to the east. One major difference from prior runs in the 3z Nam is the northern flank of precipitation and low pressure advances farther to the North before getting forced west. A stronger system would definitely help with this, so unlike Monday's system we want this to become stronger earlier. If the shifts that would need to happen (still somewhat unlikely as of now IMO) happen, this storm will catch the general public off-guard big time. Even cape cod weather forecasts have little to no precipitation in the forecast for Friday/Sat.

Maybe we can get the best of both worlds out of this pattern, with a mild-medium thump on Friday for eastern areas, and a large thump from Monday's system for Western areas (which received little benefit from the system last Friday).

Apologies, I was looking and comparing the 00z and 12z from last night/yesterday. I do believe that just like with our last storm, the interaction of the lows is going to be crucial to determine the path of the storm, which will best be observed via nowcasting.

For what it's worth (which isn't much) the CMC also has a substantial West shift for Friday's system, and 12z coats a good chunk of SNE with 2-3" of snow, where previously the edge of precipitation was hundreds of miles offshore

06z vs 12z for reference

The whole system has been modeled as a mess of lows for a while now, if the eventual low consolidation is West-biased I could see an advisory-level event for SNE in the cards

Maybe he was talking about Friday? Significant west shift, though it's pretty late in the game for enough future shifts to make it an event

18z NAM at 84 hours is interesting. It's been consistent with showing this low for the past two runs

At least the EPS has shifted Friday's event to the West... still need a few more shifts