tiger_deF
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Everything posted by tiger_deF
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Do the actual computational models themselves work in 6 hour increments, or is that just how the data is presented? Sorry if this is a stupid question
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These hours after the GFS and before the ECMWF are truly the dark times
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From someone still relatively new to meteorology, what about this is so impressive?
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There was far more consensus on Monday than there is today...
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Are we writing off a tuck/capture or is it still a possibility?
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Now watch the Euro do something completely unexpected at the 11th hour and ruin the consensus again
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On one hand I can see the dual lows robbing eachother of energy and intensity, but I can also see a scenario where they significantly prolong the snowfall
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My mind is telling me no but my body is telling me yes
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All the models have massive differences in where they first generate that low off the coast of Fl/Carolinas, until we know just where that low generates there is going to be a degree of uncertainty.
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I have a feeling we still have lots of suprises left, whether good or bad we'll find out
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We've been really unlucky this year with last minute modeling shifts and storms escaping away to the East. I really think that deep down some people think this one is going to continue to follow the same pattern
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He'll definitely have much more fun
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Amazing how bad the GFS and ensembles look compared to the rest of the models. If I had to infer the state of all the models just off it's recent runs, I'd think it was a total whiff and the board was melting down
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It was inevitable that the minute a weenie here canceled a flight back to stormchase, things would trend more positive
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If the 0z models are as bad or worse than the 18z and 12z I'm seriously going to lose my shit. It's my fault for getting so invested, but I've convinced half the block we're in for a big one
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If the Canadian is right and the max about is less than a foot, this winter gets an automatic F. It would be such an absolute waste of potential
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The way I see it, while the general trend has been East the main player in this shift has been the S stream, which has repeatedly been buried farther and farther West. The North stream, in most models but especially the Euro, has actually looked more conductive as of late. If we can get a slight east shift in the southern stream, or even just halt the general regression, we still might have a HECS in the cards That being said, I fully expect the 18z suite to make me look like a complete fool
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What would be more satisfying to the board; to see solutions converge West and more intense after staying relatively weaker and more Eastern, or to see the same strong, intense storm modelled with only small wobbles up until the start time?
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Friendship ended with 12z suite (outside of NAM), now 18z suite is my best friend
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The ICON supercomputer? I was expecting the ICON room-sized vacuum tube computer
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I think the upcoming 12z and 18z suites are going to be absolutely crucial to determining whether the storm will be a whiffer except for SNE, or a monster blockbuster storm. We need to stop the East trends, see full phasing continue to be supported, and see more capture for the upper end scenarios to have a shot at play out
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Nothing members as in the storm is so far East that impacts are minimal except for SNE, or nothing members as in they literally show no storm at all?
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As someone who turns 21 in April I thought I was the youngest member of the board for a long time... I've never felt so old Excited to track this (hopefully a) monster with you all!
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Really hope we see more tuck coming up in tonight's model runs. Euro, ICON, and some earlier runs of other models have shown a the beginnings of of tuck with due N/NNW motion for portions of the approach. The storm tucking in or not is the difference between widespread 2'+ and sporadic areas of 12-18 IMO
