tiger_deF

In the past day this wave has blossomed into one of the better looking ones this season, with lots of convection, a relatively moist environment, and growing vorticity. Early October can often signal an end to threats from the deep tropical Atlantic, but the delayed nature of this season could mean a later end to CV season as well. The UL to the left will provide some short-term barriers to intensification, but I would not be surprised to see a tropical system developing before it reaches the Caribbean.

Really serious situation with my extended family... last I heard from them 20 minutes ago the water was up to their necks in their house in the Royal Woods neighborhood of Ft. Myers, and they are too old and weak to swim for a higher building. How much more is the water expected to rise? The eye should be over them now based on radar, how long before Ft. Meyers gets the backside of the storm? If they have some time maybe they could float to somewhere more elevated... Any information would be really appreciated, I am extremely worried and my stepfather is in hysterics.

I have elderly family living in Fort Meyers near Estero that refused to evacuate... their house is only 1 story, and they've already lost power. Really hoping they come through ok...

Eye looks to be coming back out soon, the inner eyewall seems to have almost completely merged with the Northern eyewall

And both recon planes have turned around, with a single center pass to show for it...

18z ICON re-intensifies Ian into a major after leaving FL, and makes landfall in Charleston

This may be due to the recent hot towers popping in the eyewall, but the eye has clearly been contracting for the past several hours. Unless the inner eyewall dramatically weakens I think recon will find mid-cat 4 FL winds somewhere in the eyewall

Ian's structure is improving, but it looks absolutely terrible on IR (considering it was forecasted to be near hurricane strength by now)

The Euro is showing another monster trough in the 18z run picking up Hermine (or Ian?). I certainly wouldn't bet on anything, but given the prevailing pattern this season, this might be one of our best chances at something tropical for the next few years.

Frankly I think we have as much of a shot with the next system slated to develop versus we did earlier on with Fiona (unlikely, but possible)

Is that an eye-like feature?

CDO continues to expand, this may be the deepest convection of any named system so far in the Atlantic

IR appearance has rapidly improved over the last several hours

This is a pretty beautiful half a storm

Normally I'd be bearish for a system becoming decoupled from its MLC, but the current one has been so persistent with such deep convection that I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes the dominant feature. Certainly the best looking tropical system deep in the MDR to date.

Frankly I think we already have tropical storm Fiona. Considering how dry the mid-level environment is around TD 7 and the effects of westerly shear, there's a robust core with intense hot towers, as well as signs of nascant banding.

The collapse of the convection to the left and dramatic blowup of convection tonight has made 96L look 10x better

Convection is sporadic, but this is by far the best 850 mb vorticity 91L has displayed so far. This system is absolutely consolidating, and it looks to have quite the fetch. This could work against it in the long run if dry air becomes entrained, but this system has the potential to be a formidable hurricane.

It's organization is dramatically improving as well, here's 6 hours ago vs now

That's just an ugly trend for the hyped wave coming off of Africa. At least our lemon in the MDR is looking marginally more robust

Oh look, the operational GFS trended even weaker with both waves and pushed the timeframe of the actual TC back. What a surprise... Feels like mid-July

This is not an incredibly scientific analysis, but it seems that over the past several weeks waves have come off Africa and languished between 20-30W, with no sustained forward motion cutting through the SAL. The monsoon trough has been fairly active but it almost seems as if vorticities have strung out in an area of disturbed weather rather than punching through as an AOI.

I'm definitely concerned that every time the development time frame for a system has pushed below 100 hours, the models have dropped it. Happened to the wave before the one at 25W, happening to the current wave, and may happen to the one behind it. Still very dry out there, and every wave coming off of Africa has been stripped of convection by 35-40W. If this doesn't change soon we could see a season bust of epic proportions.

Curving to the left in the last few frames