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Cary67

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Everything posted by Cary67

  1. Cary67
    Lets get some more rain before suppression pattern and coastals start in the next few weeks
  2. Cary67
    The 17th -18th system is calling. Like a carrot just out of reach. 14-16th already dead
  3. Cary67
    You've followed winter weather quite awhile. What percentage of these WSWs or WWAs do you think end up meeting the criteria? Ball park estimate
  4. Cary67
    I see no one rushing to post new run cycles of various models
  5. Cary67
    Light sleet here
  6. Cary67
    If wxrisk can make money doing it why not?
  7. Cary67
    First call 4.0"
  8. Cary67
    Nah, keep walking its right there, just a little further, around the corner.lol
  9. Cary67
    Here's your next hope
  10. Cary67
    Midrange GFS wants to bury us.Euro not so much
  11. Cary67
    For any given event the number of factors that need to line up for any one particular area to receive heavy snow or ice far exceeds the few things that will cause a forecast to so call bust. The non event forecast for your backyard is always the easy money play.
  12. Cary67
    So many models, so many runs, so many flavors. Your bound to find one that tastes good.lol
  13. Cary67
    Can we keep ORD below 12.6" total for the season?
  14. Cary67
  15. Cary67
    Dont see any 6" of backside snow with this. Just sleet and slop then brief snow and stop.
  16. Cary67
    Need a shift SE of 40 miles
  17. Cary67
    Figure this forecast gets adjusted.
  18. Cary67
    All rain here rumbles of thunder
  19. Cary67
    Needs a few more runs to bring up warm air NAM and Euro shows
  20. Cary67
    Trending towards ZR and cold rain event here
  21. Cary67
    As an Illini grad he's been mentally abused by his sports teams over the years to think he will always be let down. Its just being projected into his weather thoughts.lol
  22. Cary67
    Actually still dont think this ever materializes into more then cold rain and a little slop on the back end. Really only have the Euro pointing to a significant snowfall. Waiting for it to cave to blah GFS and lack of cold air CMC. The wacky NAM will fall in line last minute with a poof its gone run inside 24 hrs. However recent data: UKMET and GEFS may hold out some hope.
  23. Cary67
    Will send pics
  24. Cary67
    At this point LOT doesnt seem to give NAM solution much weight. Low probability of heavy ice accretion due to several factors. Heavier precip rates, possible convective element producing sleet, wet bulb temps 28-30F and latent heat making it less likely. Looked for lighter ice accums far NW. Low confidence in deformation band swinging through Sat with snow but kept it as possible. Only thing that seems locked in is a lot of cold rain
  25. Cary67
    That might make a difference in my area possibly. Shifting to more snow less ice maybe..or more likely dry slotted
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