Cary67

It is true that the NOAA predominantly puts out winter forecasts for the conus that are mostly AN. That may not verify but I can understand why they do. I would say your AN or near normal snowfall this year was more a matter of luck. Not that ORD hasnt had a run of AN snowfalls the last 10 years. Will see but I think it will become increasingly difficult for the pattern to line up for persistent cold rather then persistent warm. I also think you are going to keep hearing more often in subsequent winters,"If only we had some cold air to work with this system would have been great."

Its snowing

NOAA has it right. Just copy and paste AN temps and BN to EC for snowfall. 8/10 years it will be right.

Looking to crack 30" for ORD. This is how you get to "normal winters"

Bring on the 40s. 6-7 weeks till Spring

Now thats the kind of futility a winter like this should represent. Detroit and SEMI literally manufacturing snow this year. I guess there seems to be that corridor running from Detroit up to Rochester NY, and Toronto where weak systems over the midwest deepened this year somewhat.

Its a DAB+ pound town

Lets keep ORD under 30".For meteorological winter under 20"

ORD will crack 30" so everyone can look back years from now and say it was another near normal winter. Springfield starting to lengthen their lead over ORD even as Madison sits at over 50"

Scars run deep for model trust. Hard not to Jerry Taft every forecast.

Looks generous for NW burbs.

Models just sent us back to the Stone Age for forecasting

Icon and CMC trying to perform CPR on this event to save Chicago

If the next one is this winter I will ride the lamest, weakest, most SE sheared model run there is. Ukie doesn't always show that it just did this time

The call of riding the Ukie is not so much its performance. The UKMET is one of the tallest midgets. The score for the highest verification is whatever model shows the weakest lamest event.

This point and click going to go down... down...

2.5" call looking legit

Just start looking at Ukie as soon as possible.I think its overlooked since it doesn't run out as far or as often. Maybe its not buying into delayed phase

See the foreign model bleeding continues even as 12k NAM gives Champaign WSW. Hoosier and Detroit reeling in the Ukie. After this year no complaints about NW and stronger after SE weaker has ruled this winter

Did the GFS slow down also and phase later like the NAM?

Small melt downs are good for the soul.

Is the NAM slowing this event down?

Can't discount the GFS and would reasonably expect models to slightly wobble back north by tomorrow evening. But this year seems to be the winter of SE weaker and lame so the Ukie represented that. Went for a walk today it was nice. Golf seems far off though.

Not by the Ukie. 1-2". A little more SE shift and weakening by 0Z Euro and your there. Also MKE area in the same boat.

If anything the volatility of these models would indicate NWS offices should issue winter advisories no sooner than 12 hrs out. For this event nothing sent out till tomorrow afternoon or evening for LOT.