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Moosey2323

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Everything posted by Moosey2323

  1. Moosey2323
    Anyone have a zoomed-out map for the Michigan folks?
  2. Moosey2323
    DTX AFD
  3. Moosey2323
    It's not uncommon for watches to turn into advisories
  4. Moosey2323
    Congrats to Chicago. Detroit not looking so great.
  5. Moosey2323
    NAM with a kill shot for Southeast Michigan. I don't want to get my hopes up but...
  6. Moosey2323
    I think the general rule of thumb is to underestimate the northward extent of the warm front, especially in situations with convection to the south. The Euro/Canadian seems to place the warm front too far north. I think the NAM 3km is the better solution.
  7. Moosey2323
    The Euro is still a lot warmer than the NAM. That warm front placement is still very uncertain and will dictate the precipitation for Michigan especially
  8. Moosey2323
    At forecast hour 12, the Euro is already 10 degrees warmer than the NAM 3km
  9. Moosey2323
    Not sure if this has been posted yet, but an excellent read from the LOT AFD about the ice numbers shown on model output.
  10. Moosey2323
    To illustrate the differences in the warm front placement...Taken at the same time for NAM and RDPS
  11. Moosey2323
    There are still significant differences in terms of the placement of the warm front in Michigan. The NAM and GFS don't have any of the 40s or 50s getting into Michigan before the main precip while the Canadian models show warm temps making it up. This is a major difference because it determines whether the ground will be warm enough to avoid ice accumulation.
  12. Moosey2323
    GRR put some watches out
  13. Moosey2323
    In terms of headlines, would any watches go out tomorrow? Or Friday?
  14. Moosey2323
    Ice is much farther south than the NAM
  15. Moosey2323
    Updated WPC forecast for ice meeting warning conditions
  16. Moosey2323
    The main issue with this freezing rain is going to be anything that is elevated. Trees and powerlines are going to take most of the ice.
  17. Moosey2323
    Interesting that the op GFS is the extreme with regards to temperature.
  18. Moosey2323
    Yes, but nothing compared to the numbers on the NAM. Even the LOT AFD acknowledged this was likely erroneous.
  19. Moosey2323
    I still think the icing needs to be taken with a grain of salt. The precip rates are going to be quite high. The NAM is definitely overdoing it.
  20. Moosey2323
    Canadian has depressed snowfall amounts and also misses Chicago.
  21. Moosey2323
    I'm just surprised to see the GFS, Euro, and Canadian showing something similar. It's unusual to see the models jump on the same bandwagon this season. It gives me hope for this one, but I'm also ready to get hurt again.
  22. Moosey2323
    The 18z was remarkably similar to the 12z; the line of ice hits the same counties. However, the amounts are slightly depressed.
  23. Moosey2323
    Canadian has a similar track but weaker.
  24. Moosey2323
    Ice accumulations could be on the lighter side with this storm, especially at the surface. A lot of the areas with freezing rain reach high 40s and even low 50s on Friday afternoon. The wind speeds are also on the slower side. Of course trees and power lines could still be an issue regardless. Just something to keep an eye on.
  25. Moosey2323
    DTX AFD
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