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Moosey2323

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Everything posted by Moosey2323

  1. Moosey2323
    All eyes on this cumulus field -- entering the higher CAPE environment...Cell on the northeast corner seemed to fire off.
  2. Moosey2323
    Storm motion is now to the ESE. Line is moving ever so slightly into a better sheared environment -- hence the increasing organization.
  3. Moosey2323
    SPC Mesoanalysis shows > 3500 SBCAPE and > 30 kts of bulk shear. Are we just failing to get a reliable lifting mechanism? That little boundary that passed through seemed to act as one, but the cells still had trouble surviving.
  4. Moosey2323
    Did these cells form off an outflow boundary? Seeing something like one on Radarscope.
  5. Moosey2323
    I'd argue the lack of upper air divergence is one of the main culprits today. That could've helped initiate many more cells in this thermodynamic environment. Looking at the 300mb analysis on SPC Mesoanalysis...and the locations of those magenta regions are telling.
  6. Moosey2323
    Will this big cirrus shield (that one of the first cells formed) inhibit convection in northern Virginia?
  7. Moosey2323
    71 F on NAM / 61 F on HRRR...that's a pretty large difference. Even if we land somewhere in the middle, that might be enough though. I also wonder if the bust over central Ohio will reduce the amount of cloud cover the region receives tomorrow.
  8. Moosey2323
    This storm near Hillsdale....
  9. Moosey2323
    It's been strange from the start...the first Day 3 outlook was general thunder, and they had to the rare reissue to add a marginal area.
  10. Moosey2323
    The wind field is great. Instability could be hit or miss depending on the cloud cover. While some of the hodos look tornado conducive, I think the storm mode will be predominantly linear, limiting any major tornado threat.
  11. Moosey2323
    GRR Discussion:
  12. Moosey2323
    Tuesday Sep 07 has potential. Still some variability between models but my guess is someone in the region will have good shear and cape.
  13. Moosey2323
    Model dewpoints continuing to look worse than yesterday. RAP shows a decent clearing for eastern Michigan by about 14z. If this verifies should be a good wind event.
  14. Moosey2323
    HRRRv4 is a bit weaker on surface dewpoints. NAM3k looks about the same as previous runs. Main question seems to be whether there will be discrete cells ahead of the main line.
  15. Moosey2323
    HRRRv4 shows some cells forming ahead of the line. Will have to keep an eye on those.
  16. Moosey2323
    Day 2 upgrade to enhanced.
  17. Moosey2323
    HRRRv4 really slowing down the cold front progression. Wednesday could actually be more active than initially expected for Michigan.
  18. Moosey2323
    Tuesday has my interest. I'm interested to see what the Day 3 outlook looks like tomorrow.
  19. Moosey2323
    Detroit Update to the AFD:
  20. Moosey2323
    NAM 3km (18z) shows an interesting feature along the Michigan-Indiana border. Looks like a bowing segment. Will have to keep an eye on that.
  21. Moosey2323
    The UK just cancelled the Detroit special
  22. Moosey2323
    Canadian
  23. Moosey2323
    GFS not a good look. I'm interested to see what the GEFS members do.
  24. Moosey2323
    GEFS members coming in with the Detroit special
  25. Moosey2323
    GEFS looks a lot weaker
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