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Sernest14

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Everything posted by Sernest14

  1. Sernest14
    GFS another small tick NW through 42 for weekend. Don't know if we have enough time but may be able to squeeze out some light snow.
  2. Sernest14
    That’s all from today/night
  3. Sernest14
    Are these 2 storms close enough that there could be some phasing on the back end as the new low forms on the front coming through that would increase chance for prolonged snow or better opportunity Friday? Curious with the way the models are prolonging precip more nw for tomorrow and if that has any bearing on the 2nd system coming in. I’m not sure how all that works
  4. Sernest14
    I was pulling the 10:1- still some good snow to watch but also can’t imagine losing 2 inches (at least on non paved surfaces)- ground is still pretty cold
  5. Sernest14
    Hrrr with something similar, looks like the back end get moisture fills end from the back once the initial phase passes
  6. Sernest14
    Shows 10am-7pm
  7. Sernest14
  8. Sernest14
    Tomorrow /night
  9. Sernest14
    NAM looks great- 3-5”
  10. Sernest14
    HRRR at 48 on the 18z is expanded pretty far wnw with precip as well compared to all other models. not holding my breath but hoping for a better pickup on the 2nd storm by the mesos once the first gets going and through. you would think if that could move more quickly then it would open up a little room for the second wave.
  11. Sernest14
    Euro says no dice
  12. Sernest14
    GEPS still gives us .2 liquid for weekend storm which would be 2-4" with ratios.
  13. Sernest14
    Oof - SEVA gets shafted with 12Z GFS. Gone by 12Z Saturday with less 1-2" from 12Z Friday - 12Z Saturday (2-4" overall)
  14. Sernest14
    Oof - SEVA gets shafted with 12Z GFS. Gone by 12Z Saturday with less 1-2" from 12Z Friday - 12Z Saturday (2-4" overall)
  15. Sernest14
    HRRR gets us 2-3" for Thursday - hopefully that pans out. Still have the GFS and Euro with the 4-7" for weekend- here's to hoping that doesn't go away with 12Zs
  16. Sernest14
    at about 4-5" on the GEFS with 15:1 ratios for the weekend. Roughly the same for operational.
  17. Sernest14
    Looks like a slight tick NW this run - baby steps. Get this for 3-4 more runs
  18. Sernest14
    There is a Thursday storm that’s running up that way with 1-3” the day before this…
  19. Sernest14
    Thursday looks like a dud on the 18z - that low never seems to pick up any steam and things stay a bit more suppressed.
  20. Sernest14
    NAM looks a little more amped at hr 27
  21. Sernest14
    lock it in!
  22. Sernest14
    Still have a few models that give us 3"+ ; hoping the euro holds ground - GFS is at least showing improvement over previous days run as well.
  23. Sernest14
    but that was the only one giving us 2"+
  24. Sernest14
    12z NAM ends up sliding a bit more south and less amped on that second wave. Still some accumulating snow for SCentral and SE VA
  25. Sernest14
    another thing to note is that the bigger storm will likely be much higher ratios closer to 15:1 so up whatever is shown on the 10:1 maps (not sure if Kuchera adjusts for that already though?)
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