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Sernest14

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Everything posted by Sernest14

  1. Sernest14
    I doubt they’ll be a big problem as it’ll be a wet snow with no cool down for icing over. Should have moderate snow band early that’ll allow them to cave quicker though
  2. Sernest14
    A lot of factors go into that, not just a north/south thing. Happens all the time
  3. Sernest14
    That’s not how it works
  4. Sernest14
    Modeled temps from both gfs and euro are in the low to mid 30s…
  5. Sernest14
    5 straight runs of the euro digging the upper level cold further south
  6. Sernest14
    the precip is still there on the gfs and euro as it has been. gfs is running colder than euro which is why there’s snow vs rain. the system itself isn't really moving north, it’s just the the cold air seeps more south with the gfs. so instead of a couple inches of snow and a ton of ice/sleet, we’re seeing more snow. Euro shows light snow to start then light mixed followed by straight rain.
  7. Sernest14
    Do ensembles account for sleet and freezing rain? Notice they list as 10:1 vs kuchera
  8. Sernest14
    Gfs also shows anywhere from .6-1” of ice on top of the 14” of snow (Ashland)
  9. Sernest14
    12z GFS is a thing of beauty- 48 hrs straight of snow starting midday 10th
  10. Sernest14
    Few flakes!
  11. Sernest14
    RAP has 1-2” line from metro to Petersburg
  12. Sernest14
    Short ranges creeping a little more NW. radar and snow reports also more north and north west compared to short range
  13. Sernest14
    Radar looks better than modeled by hrrr or NAM
  14. Sernest14
    No it didn’t- had on average 5-6 in short pump with minimal down to nc border. Very easy to go back and look at the numerous runs that showed that vs a random run
  15. Sernest14
    Radar looks more juiced than 3k nam is showing
  16. Sernest14
    Still dumping here- approaching 2” of new
  17. Sernest14
    Heaviest snow so far, roads covered
  18. Sernest14
    Moderate snow now
  19. Sernest14
    Snow starting back up very lightly - ashland
  20. Sernest14
    Yeah, more like a mist away from trees
  21. Sernest14
    Starting to sleet in Ashland but don’t see anything on radar?
  22. Sernest14
    Dry slot seems to be filling in just north of Lynchburg
  23. Sernest14
    Radar looks like the dry slot is trying to fill in a bit (just north of Lynchburg)
  24. Sernest14
    Radar seems to have shifted a little where sleet line is more towards nc border (could also just be radar im going by)
  25. Sernest14
    May hint at the cold air over powering the warm air and keeping us more snow overnight
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