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Sernest14

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Everything posted by Sernest14

  1. Sernest14
    9” drifts? Looked about 3” or so on the last page
  2. Sernest14
    Now all we need is the low to hug the coast for a while and stall
  3. Sernest14
    It’s already depicting that on the radar loops, just need to allow the low to keep working its way up
  4. Sernest14
    per 12z nam, we were only at .01-05” through 1 pm Hrrr .01-.05” through 2pm As the low creeps up it’s going to fill in more and also push the better returns into our area which is what almost all the models show as well
  5. Sernest14
    its building back in per radar. West is going to continue to show dry due to mountains in western Carolina but will build back in as it crosses into va
  6. Sernest14
    Radar depiction down in the south at the gulf looks much more amplified (assuming a stronger low). Hopefully can power through more than what the models show to give us a little shift nw. also looked a couple hours early and is heavier in western/central tn
  7. Sernest14
    Assuming they are running with 15:1. Most qpf is around .4-.5 which puts it in the range then the trickle nw that tends to happen as well
  8. Sernest14
    Such a lazy forecast- they always do that
  9. Sernest14
    any reasoning behind this for the NAM or is it just weakening and dying over the mountains?
  10. Sernest14
    Definitely curious to see what NAM does at 00z, 6/18 have been drier than 00/12 over - also feel like I’ve heard there’s not as much data to work with during 6/18 so not as accurate? No idea how true that is
  11. Sernest14
    Dinardo’s updated map
  12. Sernest14
    anywhere have the graf free?
  13. Sernest14
    12k has a lot more sleet
  14. Sernest14
    Its been pretty good in this area all winter
  15. Sernest14
    12k NAM looks more robust and better than 6z
  16. Sernest14
    NAM looking slightly better through 26
  17. Sernest14
    Definitely more south and colder
  18. Sernest14
    It really didn’t perform bad at all and was actually more accurate than the euro if you look at the ensembles
  19. Sernest14
    Actually may have just flipped to rain
  20. Sernest14
    HRRR and Nam both show freezing precip through 6am
  21. Sernest14
    Ended with 6” with a lot of sleet in between (Ashland). Still heavy sleet and am sure that will continue to compress things a bit. should be frozen still for next few hours though
  22. Sernest14
    Ended with 6” with a lot of sleet in between. Still heavy sleet and am sure that will continue to compress things a bit
  23. Sernest14
    Nice little spurt coming up in the next 10-15
  24. Sernest14
    Heaviest snow so far- at ~5”
  25. Sernest14
    Heaviest snow so far- at ~5.5”
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