clskinsfan

Had flurries off and on all day in the Winchester area today. It really felt like winter here. COLD and windy with flurries flying is never something to bitch about.

I just posted in the winter thread. But the mid December time period looks really nice actually. MJO, NAO and PNA all look tasty for that time period. No guarantee the temps will cooperate. Especially for the coastal plain. But there could be a legit chance during that time period.

Looking at the MJO, PNA and NAO forecast I am kind of bullish about the mid December time period. The MJO looks to make it to 8 and the long range models all have a pretty strong -NAO with good west coast ridging around the same time period. I know that isnt an ideal time of year temp wise for the coastal plain. But the cold air has been decent so far this fall. And those of us to the west might have a legit chance during that period at least.

The next few days of lake effect are going to be something else. Enjoy it up there if you are going up.

33 and rain here. It was really nice to see flakes falling earlier. First flakes of the year always get me excited for the rest of the winter. Hopefully we all get to normal this year.

First flakes of the year here in the Winchester area. Nice to have winter weather back again.

0Z HRRR with a pretty nice thump out here tomorrow.

That would be right on time. We usually get our first flakes out here around 11/15. 18Z RGEM is in for some flakes in the Winchester area tomorrow.

Today I had a work meeting in Richmond. On the way home I had to get gas. I looked up and I was in Short Pump. Literally lost it while pumping my gas. Guy next to me looked at me like I was nuts. Because I was. I felt sorry for every single poor snowless bastard there.

Thing is for our area if you go slightly below average with your forecast you are golden 80% of the time. Our numbers are so skewed by big noreasters in the winters that we get them that going with an 80% fail rate is good science. And I am being serious. Forecasting here is an absolute crap shoot. But 80% of the time you will be right. Because we wont get a monster coastal. I will say when we get stalled Mid Atlantic storms it is game on though. We get buried as well or better than anyone else when the conditions are right.

Yeah. Thats reason I remembered and mentioned it above. It was a classic screwjob for us. And is one of the main MillerB's I use every winter to remind myself that Miller B's suck here.

NYC will love hearing that. They got hit pretty hard by a jumper in Dec 00. We of course got screwed. Because it was a jumper.

Really concerned about flooding in OC. Will be watching webcams tomorrow while working with angst.

Agree with this. And the sad part to me is that a lot of people actually evacuated from Tampa to Fort Myers. If the message from the beginning had been "no where on the west coast of Florida is safe" I wonder how different the outcome would have been. Obviously I have no clue if a Tampa evacuee lost their life or not. But that doesnt matter to my point. The message should have been "leave the Florida west coast now".

Yeah. I am sure you are fine with it. Around average and all for Boston. It is what it is. We all know what Nina's mean for our area. I am just hoping to break 20 out here in the mountains.

First quad Nina next year?

Accuweather says only 3-5 days of falling snowfall for DC this winter. Winter is over. Where is Ji? "This winter, AccuWeather is predicting that Washington, D.C., will experience accumulating snow on only three to five days throughout the season with total accumulations amounting to 6 to 10 inches, just below the average of 13.7 inches." https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/accuweather-2022-2023-us-winter-forecast/1252283

Yep. Just a straight up nasty day. And tomorrow will be the same.

What a beast. Reminds me of the Superstorm a little bit. Big boy for sure.

SevereStudios has some pretty good cams again today of surge in SC for anyone interested. Pawleys Island seems to getting the worst of it so far.

Crazy how the surge swept all of these trailers into a heap. What a mess.

Crazy looking storm. Noreaster/tropical storm mix.

I mean not being political either. But a lot of the people that evacuated the Tampa area evacuated to Fort Myers. So yeah. I think next time when people are told to evacuate it needs to be to the other coast of Florida depending on which coast is getting hit. The cone is the cone and it will almost always verify.

They already upped it to 80 at second landfall. It wont really mean anything for most of us though. Just a breezy rainstorm.