clskinsfan

Kind of crazy how different the GEFS and Opp are at 6z. The op is kind of a disaster in all honesty.

Interesting take. I have always thought that the Phase of the MJO 8-1 aligns with a cold pattern in the east during our prime climo. But the amplitude effects how active the pattern is? I may be wrong on this though.

Still a little early for NAM extrapolations. Damn shame. That is when this site is fun.

Could be too much of a good thing. Squished storms maybe? Then we are back to waiting for the relax. Still love the next 3 weeks for the majority of us though.

Dude. You just posted a map with SIX FING INCHES of pdf and called it dry......ISSUES bro.

I was referring more not about the weather part of it. Just nice to have ya'll back. But since we are weather forum and all of that......What are your thoughts on the -NAO sticking around for an extended period. It is going to be strong. That isnt debatable at this point. And I think it ends up staying with us for the majority of the winter. Through early Feb at least. We are all guessing at this point. But the MJO is going 7-8 and then to the COD. I think the Mid Atlantic ends up in the battle zone this year. Maybe no "big dogs". But I am bullish about an over climo winter for many of us. Maybe even WAY over climo for those of us with elevation. Again. Nice to have you back Ian.

Man. Been really nice to have Ian and many of the originals back the past couple of weeks.

Sorry brother cant help it.

The NAO alone wont make us win. But it is a huge piece as long as we have cold air on this side of the hemisphere. And we do. We will have chances as long as the northern jet is buckled. And it appears that will be happening for the next few weeks at least. No guarantees. But I will take a -NAO in winter over a positive always.

I tend to agree. But I dont think so this year. I could end up wrong. Have many times. But I dont think the blocking breaks down this winter. Think the NAO could carry us to a few events. Mainly talking about us with elevation. But I do feel WAY better about this winter than last years debacle.

Yeah. No chance we go quad Nina. But dont think we will definitely get a Nino either. Neutral winters do happen. And with the way the base state seems to want to be over the past few years I would probably put my money on that. We can do great in neutral Enso's though with lots of overrun events. Our area usually ends up the battle line in those winters. Probably our most consistent way to score here.

We wasted a ton of blocking 2 winters ago. But all of the cold air ended up trapped on the other side of the Hemisphere that winter. We have been relatively cold. We dont need straight out of the Arctic ball shrinking cold to snow. We just need enough.

GEFS is really nice from next weekend through the end of its run. That block isnt going anywhere anytime soon.

Monster Baffin block, 50/50 and something brewing on the Gulf Coast? Yeah. I will take my chances with that map every single time.

EPS has a decent signal for a couple of chances next weekend and early the following week. Thats about all we can ask for at this point.

18Z GEFS says the op is on crack by the way.

Which is probably better as far as climo goes for our region. We can snow in December obviously. Especially our here. But Jan/Feb are out bread and butter. Like I said a few days ago I would be fine with punting the NAO relaxing into early Jan. Prime climo for a bomb. Edited because Apparently my brain has confused the R and T keys for some reason. Carry on.

That block is unreal. I mean you cant really ask for a better look as far as East Coast snowstorms go. The block backs over Baffin as this Gefs run moves to mid month as the block weakens as well. That is probably our prime window to get hammered. A weakening block with it retrograding over Baffin just screams beatdown for us. When I was calling out the mid December period a couple of weeks ago it was pure speculation. It is starting to get more real now IMO.

Yes.

I actually like watching Doug. He is more entertaining than most of the TV weather folks. I liked Lauren as well. Shame she left.

If these looks up top end up verifying it is going to be a pretty big coup for mid-long range modelling. We were talking about this possibility almost two weeks ago now. And the look has actually gotten better since then. I would like to see a little more ridging on the west coast. And I wouldnt mind the can getting kicked down the road a couple of weeks. It would help you guys on the coastal plain a ton IF something does pop off. It is just so much better to be tracking a legit pattern instead of the garbage we have been tracking early in the past couple of winters. Hell, I think I jumped last year around New Years. The writing was on the wall. At least we have a possible game to play.

18Z GFS has a chance for some frozen on the 8th for those of us to west. Looks like a vort riding up a front kinda deal. Way out there. But something to watch. I still do like the look of that mid December time period for sure.

I need to go up there for a LE event one time. The pics of the wall of snow coming in from the lakes is something else.