clskinsfan

San Diego? Oh man I'm envious. Best weather in the us there hands down.

Stayed cloudy all day. Reached a high of 35. Temps and DP's falling now. HRRR has gotten colder and wetter the past couple of runs. Could get ugly I guess. 33/20

Woke up to heavy frost and an Ice Storm Warning this morning. I will be keeping an eye on those dew points today to see which model was closest. I am going to assume this will be the obs thread as well for this event. So here we go. 23/19

The 80's in general were really good as far as winter weather goes. A couple really bone chilling winters that decade as well.

0Z HRRR quite a bit warmer than other guidance. Maybe it will score a coup for once.

Yeah they just added the Winchester area into the mix. Looks like they are thinking sleet here. Dewpoints at onset have actually come down a little bit today with the 12Z runs. Mid teens for my area.

Yeah stays all frozen out here. Looks like a pretty serious ice storm for the southern Shen Valley and quite sleety up here in the Winchester area. I would obviously prefer sleet to ZR. Pretty funny "snow" map from the GFS as well. It went with a sleet bomb this run it appears.

Dewpoints in the low 20's heading into the event for the Shen Valley drops surface temps to the mid to high 20's for a few hours after onset. Could be quite a mess for a while until Thursday afternoon actually.

Anyone know where I can find Northern Hemisphere upper air maps for December of 1983? That is the king of December arctic outbreaks for me. We were -7 on Christmas morning here.

The 18Z GEFS run from basically this Thursday until the end is probably one of the best runs I can ever remember. I dont see how we dont smoked at least a couple of times if that pattern verifies.

Yeah. Negative 16-20 departures. Anything that does fall will become a glacier.

The Happy Hour GFS delivers. What a weenie run for the holiday week. We get smoked twice. Including on Christmas day.

Absolutely. And that is the crutch of this hobby. Everyone here knows so much more than your family and friends. Because we take time out of our lives to look at maps and think or prophesize about what could happen if this was here or that was there. I use anything on the models outside of day 3 as a chess piece on a huge frikin chess board. The winning pieces are there this year. Which is way beyond what we could say the past two Decembers. Just have to remember that that no matter how good your game is you can still lose.

No frikin clue man. I think typed "huge snow" into google a decade ago and that is what came up. Cant change it now.

It is struggling with the block I think.

Dude. It is literally December 10th. And we are facing an absolutely epic setup in the next month. Prime setup heading into prime climo. We are SO MUCH better off than we have been the past two Decembers. When we knew winter was over by New Years eve. Everyone needs to chill a little bit. If we dont end up getting blasted in the next month I will stop this hobby. And I have been weenieing for long god damn time. I feel really good about where we are heading.

I must have blocked them both. Because I have seen none of it. If you told me in September that I would be looking at that -NAO block in December I would have chugged a bottle of Crown. Give me a DEC -NAO and I will take my chances the rest of the winter. And I dont care about base states or anything else. My personal experience is a cold -NAO December leads to happiness for my area the rest of the winter. The rest of you? I dont really care. But it is what it is.

The GFS took a pretty big step toward the Euro at 12Z IMO. It is still insistent on trying to drive LP's into the wall to the north. It tries to do it again after the late week storm with another cutter. Still think it is struggling with the block in the longer range.

GFS agrees with you

By the way those Euro and GFS Christmas maps look eerily similar.

Really busy at work today. Hung over from too much bock last night. I log on and see 5 new pages. Know things must be cooking. Merry Christmas. At least I wont be posting my Santa with a flamethrower gif this year.

Yes. It has been trending colder at the surface. But what I am seeing is the GFS starting to figure out that a 1000+ vort isnt cutting into that wall to the north. It is freaking out about it. If I had to bet right now I would say that storm ends up south of us. We'll see if its the stout bock talking...or the stout block over the next couple of days.

I thought you said stout bock and I was all in. Of course I am always all in.

I agree. I think the models are struggling with the block a little bit. As long as we get the PNA to cooperate and the SER gets squashed there is nothing cutting into that block. Anything that comes along on southern jet will have to stay south.

Even with a pretty crappy PAC. This plot is pretty nice. Tons of blocking and a 1040+ HP dropping into the plains, 50/50 and something popping off on the Gulf coast. The opp ends up with a cutter out of this. But I will take my chances with that look if we can ever actually get there.