clskinsfan

That is one heck of a cluster for this far out. Wow.

That GEFS map is pretty much textbook. Maybe not ideal placement for the HP. But Lets just get to that actual setup and I will take my chances from there.

Yep. Give us a bomb parked over Norfolk and we are dancing.

Which isnt necessarily a bad thing for all of us. Just saying.

Much better surface temps this run as well. Although that is a long ways out to worry about at this point.

Well that is looking much better than it did last week. Maybe I was ready to jump too soon.

Glad for the west coast as they obviously need the rain badly. But I am close to putting a big huge fork in this winter. Three years of Nina's is taking its toll on me. And now we have a Nina with Nino like flow. Which means PAC puke and trash air masses. Had amazing blocking early and ended up with a single week long arctic outbreak out of it. This hobby frustrates to no end.

I just want to wish a Merry Christmas to my weather weenie friends here. We are holding off our celebration for our son who is in the Navy and gets leave on the 28th. Amazing how his sister insisted on the wait. I am blessed with amazing children, grandchildren and an amazing life. I pray for all to have the same blessings. Happy holidays friends.

Interesting. I wonder if it just updated with the 12Z run? I always get them from here. It has just about all of the MJO forecasts in one place: https://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php

Yes. But the problem is there is really no amplitude at all showing up in the future. And phase 7 is usually the phase with the highest amplitude. 7 is also the phase that the MJO usually moves through rapidly. Again that doesnt mean it wont snow here. But it could impact the activity on the southern jet. Another thing that concerns me a little bit is usually the MJO is amped towards the end of Nina from what I understand. It is one of the indicators of an upcoming Nino. And I really dont want any part of a 4th Nina next winter. I edited my above post to "near" instead of in the COD. Thanks for the correction.

Well it doesnt appear we will be getting any help from the MJO anytime soon. Doesnt mean we wont get any snow. But I would be shocked to see anything big happen with the MJO near the COD for the foreseeable future.

That will be the squeaky snow in the morning when you walk on it. I love that kind of ultra cold snow.

After reading other peoples reports I am sitting pretty at a balmy 7 degrees.

13/-4 here. Took the trash out in a t-shirt. Bad idea. Brutal out.

Down to 18 here with winds at 30 and gusts to 50. Crazy outside.

I remember 83 because I got a new bike for Christmas. I stepped out the door to ride it and thought I was going to die as well. Basically 5 minutes and you were done. It was -7 degrees at my house that morning. Just for reference of how special that December cold spell was. January sucked real bad. Cold and dry. Hopefully we dont repeat.

This is about as close to 83 as we will ever see. Incredibly anomalous December cold incoming.

That is insane. I love the Choptank. Best crabs on earth come from that river. And no one can even think about changing my mind on that. I am a torn individual. I live in the VA mountains during the winter. Which is usually amazing. I live in OC during the summer. Which is usually amazing. I got convinced as a young guy that there really isnt a better place to live than the Mid Atlantic. We have real seasons. All of us live 2 hours within the mountains or beach. All of us can get up in the morning and visit some of the finest museums in the world before noon. Then decide to be at the beach by dinner time. It is an amazing place to live.

Ha. Yeah. The greatest cold blast in Christmas history.

I miss Bob Ryan. And George/Jim Vance/Wendy as well. NBC4 was THE SHIT in the DC area for decades.

NAM brought the flizzard back for most. It shows rain on the precip maps. But that is snow. I think the majority of us are going to enjoy tomorrow morning. Gonna be a rare event here.

Oh sweet Jesus. She really is going to put me in a home soon. I will be posting like Chuck before ya'll know it.

I thought Towson was near Baltimore not Frederick? Anyways. I dont ever remember a "Wind Chill Advisory" being something. Is this a new thing from the NWS or is my memory failing as bad as my wife says it is? Edit: By the way. I am freshly home from my company Christmas party and quite hammered. So I will probably be annoying as hell the next 4 days. Those that might be offended should take a look at the ignore feature on this site and put me on it. Wind Chill Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 725 PM EST Thu Dec 22 2022 MDZ003>006-507-VAZ027>031-501-505-WVZ052-053-230830- /O.CON.KLWX.WC.Y.0011.221223T1800Z-221224T1500Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Northwest Harford-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke- Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Berkeley-Jefferson- 725 PM EST Thu Dec 22 2022 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 15 below zero.

I think some people are going to be surprised by the flash freeze. Tons of liquid fell in our region. Everything is saturated. All of the brine and salt has washed away. And no chance all of it dries up before turning to concrete. Less traveled roads will have some terrible spots on them.

Yeah I am good as well. Had a high of 34 today. Back down to freezing currently and the back roads are quite dangerous. Getting snow today saved us from the torch. My only wish was a white Christmas. And that is guaranteed now. About an inch and half of snowpack left. It survived quite well.