clskinsfan

I would think that by the time we get to I most years we are at the peak of the tropical season. So probably not surprising that I's tend to be mature storms more often?

Franklin is a gorgeous storm.

Man I hope you are right Bob. The past few years have changed everything I think about winters here. We will see I guess. By the way. Nice to see some action picking up here. Winter is coming.

No. But I think the base state has changed quite a bit in the past 20+ years. Especially south of 40. I will take a Nino every single time. Because it almost always ends up above normal snow here. But that usually comes from bombs. And it may be that is the only way we get snow anymore down here.

I am not lucky enough to keep them from getting diseased here. I get a couple of rounds out of cucumber plants and they look like crap. I just pull them up and replant. They grow fast enough. Usually 50-60 days and you have more than you can eat.

You probably still have time to do another round of cucumbers as well. I just planted some last week.

tomatoes are amazing this year. I planted 40 plants this year and have canned tons of sauce, salsa and stewed. They love dry weather. And are sweet as can be this year. Everything else is just about dead in my garden.

Hopefully this upgrade goes better than the last one. The last upgrade actually ended up degrading the Euro in the long range imo.

97-98 was front loaded if I remember correctly. I didn't save totals then. But we had snow here before Christmas. And a few other storms in January if my records are correct. Was definitely the worst as far as ninos go. But I will take ANYTHING other than the endless Nina hell we have been in for most of the decade.

Don't really see a problem with that. Peaking in October is probably best case for us down here.

I would. Every single Nino has been above average here In the last 30 years. Not a wall to wall winter. But above average because we get slammed with coastals. Now close to ocean I get it. But I am ecstatic about what I am seeing.

Sitting on the deck just loving this evening. Everything has greened up beautifully. Temp is amazing. Just perfect.

I have not even turned mine on this year. Have no idea if it even works. But yeah. Out here in the valley has been downright cold in the evenings. Garden is loving it surprisingly. Tomatoes usually like a little warmth. But mine are doing great so far.

Wont hear me say it often. But thank god it is raining in the Winchester area. We need it so bad.

I am actually fine with a Nino peaking in October. We have had 4 Nino's in 18 years. And all of them have delivered. Maybe not wall to wall snow. But they all have been above average snowfall out here.

@stormtracker Did you see this? They pulled Beethoven's DNA sequence from locks of his hair. Apparently it wasnt just his drinking that killed him. He was predisposed genetically to have liver disease. And he had hepatitis B as well. Modern science is something else. https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/science/locks-hair-compose-symphony-genetic-information-beethoven-2023-03-22/

I think it is the temperature difference between the latitudes that matter.

Terpeast mentioned in his thread that it is possible the mid lat SST's are warming faster than the tropical SST's. Possibly make Nina's a permanent base state. I hope not.

Cut down a Red Mulberry tree today. Let it grow for about 15 years thinking I would get some berries from it at some point. Turns out there are male and female trees. And only the females make berries. I have been growing vegetables for decades. But never really put any effort into trees so I didnt know. I am now. Planted apple and pear trees this year. Anyways. I damn near killed myself today. I cut the notch a little too deep and figured it would be fine. Went to cut the back cut and the frikin tree started falling over before I even started the cut. I am not a spring chicken anymore, mid 50's, and lucky for me the tree fell dead smack in the direction of the notch or It would have killed me. My wife was freaking out. :). She said well YOU WILL be hiring someone to cut trees down in the future. I cut the tree up, stacked it and grabbed a cold beer. Felt like a kid again.

We can still have Pac puke in a Nino. But it is more rare. Nino's tend to give us lower heights over the Aleutians. Which helps with cold air getting forced further east towards us. Add in an active STJ and I will always take a Nino over anything else. Especially if we can get some blocking. It could be that we will have awful winters with an occasional bomb in Nino years. Like 2016. And if thats what it takes for snow going forward I will take it. Look at this graph of Enso states by year. We have had FOUR Nino's in 18 years. The predominate Enso state has been Nina's. And they are pretty much game over for us. And because we rarely see a neutral anymore, It appears going forward that we will have extremes weather wise with everything. Including strength of Enso state. My fear is that we face Nina's the majority of years going forward due to our changing climate. And if that is the case. We are pretty much screwed.

Great post. And I agree with a lot of it. The bigger question for me is with the current climate are we going to be dealing with Nina's going forward. We have had 4 Nino's since 2005. 4 Nino's in 18 years. If Nina is going to predominate base state going forward we are screwed regardless.

Forgetting about the severe season. That quick warming in 2002 led to the 02/03 winter. Which of course meant PD2 and the 7th snowiest winter in Winchester history. Hopefully we get a repeat.

Especially at mid day on March 27th.

You guys to the east can get saved with northern stream vorts. Pick up the junk before they bomb out and hammer New England. We get jumped out here.

Well basically you wont have to worry about winter except once a decade. So yeah. Generally the Mid Atlantic might be the best retirement spot. After retirement you should expect to see 2 or 3 snowstorms before you die.